Russia will pay / damaged.in.ua


The project of collecting, evaluating, analyzing, and documenting information on direct losses to civilian infrastructure in connection with Russian aggression

damaged.in.ua

Since February 2022, the beginning of the war, the project has been conducted by KSE Institute (think tank at the Kyiv School of Economics) together with the Office of the President of Ukraine, Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine, Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, Ministry for Communities and Territories Development of Ukraine.

 

The analysis of the caused losses is carried out by analysts by the KSE Institute team and volunteers from partner organizations, in particular, the Center for Economic Strategy, Dragon Capital, Anti-Corruption Headquarters, Institute of Analysis and Advocacy, Transparency International Ukraine, Prozorro.Sale, Prozorro, Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, CoST Ukraine, Vkursi Agro, TVIS Ukraine, and the Association of retailers of Ukraine (RAU).

 

Background. On February 24, 2022, Russia started a full-scale, unprecedented war against Ukraine. As a result of a large-scale Russian invasion, thousands of civilians died, multiple cities were shelled with rockets, bombs, and artillery, and critical infrastructure facilities, industrial enterprises, thousands of kilometers of roads, and thousands of real estates were destroyed or damaged.

 

Project aim. The project’s aim is to document, verify, analyze, and estimate all material damage caused to Ukraine’s physical infrastructure. A register of damages and an aggregated database of material losses will be created in the framework of the project.

 

The collected data and the damage assessment will be used for the following purposes:

1) to document war crimes and human rights violations;

2) to the formation of claims against the Russian Federation in international courts for compensation for damage caused: lawsuits for international courts require aggregate evidence and a register of damaged objects in accordance of the methodology of estimating;

3) for individual compensation;

4) to receive war reparations and compensations for damage from the aggressor for the reconstruction of Ukraine. 

 

Data collection. The calculations are based on the analysis of several thousands of public notifications from Ukrainian citizens, the government, and local authorities about losses and damages throughout the country, as well as on the basis of public sources. Every citizen can also submit information about the loss of physical infrastructure, including residential buildings, due to the war using the RUSSIA WILL PAY resource, the chatbot or Kyiv Digital app.

 

It is very important to add the true information in a structural way. It helps the information to be used. In particular, you need to fill in the form on the portal in as much detail as possible, add videos and photos of the object and, if possible, the contacts of witnesses.

 

Anyone who provides information about the destruction will be guaranteed data confidentiality. Also, information about specific destructions will not be published. Only generalized statistics will be publicly available during martial law.

ANALYTICS

Damages to Ukraine’s infrastrucrure. May 25

As of May 25, the total amount of direct damage to Ukraine’s economy from damage and destruction of residential and non-residential buildings and infrastructure reached $105.5 billion, or over UAH 3.1 trillion. Over the past week, the direct losses of Ukraine’s economy due to the destruction and damage to civilian and military infrastructure increased by over $8 billion.

 

The increase in the total amount of damage in the current week is due to the increase in damage caused to the housing stock, enterprises, and retail. 

 

The amount of damage due to the destruction of the real estate increased by another $5.5 bln. As of May 25, the total amount of damage to the housing stock amounted to $39.3 bln. 

 

Cities such as Mariupol, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk were affected the most from the destruction of the housing stock. In total, more than 44 million square meters of Ukrainian housing were damaged, destroyed, or seized due to the war. The figure is related to the further destruction and addition of new cities to the list of settlements for which the calculation of damage is carried out. 

 

The total amount of direct documented damage to Ukrainian enterprises has already reached $11.3 bln. Over the past week, this figure has increased by $591 mln. Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 227 enterprises, plants, and factories have been damaged or destroyed, or seized. 

 

For the first time, damage to Ukrainian retail has been added to the current calculations. As a result of the war, at least 2,910 outlets were damaged and the total damage is $1.4 bln.

 

The losses from damage, destruction or loss of cars is almost $1.6 bln. In total, such cars are almost 105 thousand. Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Chernihiv, and Kyiv are among the regions with the largest number of damaged cars.

 

Map of damage and destruction of cars breakdown by region, number

 

This week, the damage caused to educational institutions increased by $103 mln and now amounts to $1.5. bln. The number of losses caused by health care facilities increased by another $45 mln. In the breakdown by type of healthcare facilities, hospitals, polyclinics, and disease control and prevention centers were destroyed or damaged the most as a result of the war, followed by the number of outpatient clinics. A total of 643 medical facilities have been destroyed or damaged. Direct damage to healthcare facilities amounts to more than $1.1 bln.

 

Graph of health facilities most affected by hostilities breakdown by types, units

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 23.8 thousand kilometers of roads, 6.3 thousands of railways and 41 railway bridges, 643 health care facilities, 1,123 educational institutions, 621 kindergartens, 192 cultural and 115 religious buildings, 178 warehouses, 99 administrative buildings, 28 oil depots, 19 shopping centers have been damaged, destroyed or seized. 

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion.

 

 

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Damages to infrastructure of Pushcha-Vodytsya, Kyiv region. May 23

Direct damage caused to Pushcha-Vodytsya infrastructure during the war amounted to more than half a billion UAH 

 

This can be seen from the analysis carried out by the KSE Institute team within the “Russia will pay” project. The calculation of the damage to Pushcha-Vodytsya infrastructure was carried out on the basis of data collected in the framework of the RebuildUA project, initiated by SmartFarming and Vkursi Agro. 

 

According to the expert assessments, out of the total amount of UAH 512 mln or $ 17.5 mln, almost UAH 350 mln are losses from damage and destruction of social infrastructure in Pushcha-Vodytsya. Damage to residential and homestead buildings amounts to more than UAH 113 mln. 

 

Due to the completely destroyed fire department, Pushcha-Vodytsya had lost another UAH 47.7 mln. Direct damage caused to industrial infrastructure, in particular, warehouses, amounted to UAH 2.14 million.

 

In total, 34 residential and homestead buildings, 5 sports facilities, 5 health care and recreation facilities, 2 hotels, 1 shop, and 1 cafe were destroyed in the Pushcha-Vodytsya. In addition, 3 warehouses were damaged or destroyed. 

 

The assessment of the destruction, damage, and level of bombing in the village became possible due to digitizing high-precision images from drones. It allows having the most accurate estimates of damage to the Pushcha-Vodytsya for today.

 

According to digitized photographs, it is known that out of 1920 buildings in Pushcha-Vodytsya, 56 were damaged due to the war, 23 of which were completely or severely destroyed.  

 

The full report

Damages to Ukraine’s infrastructure. May 19

During the last week, direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), increased by $3.1 billion. As of May 19, the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is $97.4 billion. 

 

For the third week in a row, as a result of hostilities, the losses from damaged and destroyed residential buildings continue to grow. According to analysts, the amount of damage due to the destruction of the housing stock increased by almost $3 billion. As of May 19, 38.6 million square meters of housing stock were destroyed or damaged. The total amount of this damage has reached $33.9 billion. 

 

Total losses from destruction and damage to industrial enterprises also increased by $272 million over the last week, and the total amount is $10.7 billion. Since the beginning of the war 219 plants, factories, and enterprises have been destroyed, damaged, or seized.

 

Furthermore, over the last week, another 75 educational institutions were damaged and destroyed, with a total of 1,067 since the beginning of the war. The damage caused to educational facilities is almost $1.5 billion. According to the latest estimates within the project «Russia will pay», at least 94.5 thousand private cars were destroyed, damaged, or seized.  

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 12 civilian airports, 295 bridges and bridge crossings, 591 kindergartens, 574 healthcare institutions, 108 religious and 179 cultural buildings, 169 warehouses and 19 shopping malls. 

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion.

 

 

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Damages to infrastrucuture of Horenka village, Kyiv region. May 16

Direct damage caused to Horenka village in the Kyiv region from the war amounted almost $85 mln or UAH 2.5 billion. 

 

This can be seen from the analysis carried out by the KSE Institute team within the “Russia will pay” project. The calculation of the damage to Horenka infrastructure was carried out on the basis of data collected in the framework of the RebuildUA project, initiated by SmartFarming and Vkursi Agro.

 

Horenka is one of the most suffered villages in Kyiv region, which was in a kilometer zone of the front since the first days of the war. In March, according to the Ministry of Defense, the village was shelled by Russian troops, in particular from multiple rocket launchers. Thanks to the digitization of high-precision images from drones, it was possible to assess the level of destruction, damage and analyze the level of bombing. These are the most accurate estimates of Horenkaʼs losses for now. 

 

According to the report by RebuildUA and KSE Institute, due to the war, almost 1.2 thousand buildings were destroyed or damaged, of which more than a thousand were residential and homestead buildings. Damage from the destruction of these buildings amounts to UAH 1.37 billion. During the active hostilities in the Horenka village, 105 industrial infrastructure facilities in the village were damaged and destroyed. 

 

Destroyed enterprises and warehouses of the following companies: KUEHNE+NAGEL, Inter Cars Ukraine, BILLERBECK UKRAINE FEATHER AND DOWN FACTORY LLC, KLIMTEK LLC, TRANS LOK LLC, PROMZIZ. According to KSE Institute analysts, the damage from the destruction of industrial infrastructure is UAH 1.07 billion.

 

Furthermore, there are 17 trade establishments, 3 shops, 3 food establishments, 1 church, 1 educational establishment and 1 medical lab among the damaged objects of social infrastructure. Damage to Horenka’s social infrastructure is over UAH 48 million. The village has lost another UAH 2 million from the destruction of administrative buildings. 

 

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Damages to Ukraine’s infrustracture. May 10

As of May 10,  the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is over $94 billion or almost 2.8 trillion hryvnias. Over the past week, the direct losses of Ukraine’s economy due to the destruction and damage to civilian and military infrastructure increased by over $2.4 billion.

 

According to new estimates, the largest increase in losses was the growth in the number of damaged and destroyed residential buildings as a result of hostilities. As estimated by the project analysts, 35.2 million square meters of the housing stock were destroyed or damaged due to the war. The total amount of damage is $31 billion. Compared to the previous calculations, the figure increased by almost $1.3 billion. Cities such as Mariupol, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Rubizhne suffered the most from the destruction of the housing stock.

 

The losses from the destruction of 27 oil depots amount to $227 million.

 

In addition, the total number of destroyed or damaged educational institutions is almost one thousand, and losses reach $1.3 billion.

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 208 factories and enterprises, 508 healthcare institutions, 562 kindergartens, 156 warehouses, 992 educational institutions, 295 bridges and bridge crossings, 102 religious buildings, 83 administrative buildings, 27 oil depots, and 12 civilian airports and have been damaged, destroyed or seized.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion.

 

 

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Damages to infrastructure of Moschun village, Kyiv region. May 6

Direct damage caused to Moschun village in the Kyiv region during the war amounted to almost UAH 1.1 billion or $37.3 million.

 

This can be seen from the analysis carried out by the KSE Institute team within the “Russia will pay” project. The calculation of the damage to Moschun infrastructure was carried out on the basis of data collected in the framework of the RebuildUA project, initiated by SmartFarming and Vkursi Agro.

 

Digitized information about the infrastructure of the Moschun village is the most accurate damage estimate for today. The data was collected through the digitization of high-precision drone images. It allows analysts to estimate the level of damage and to make a thermal map of damage and levels of the bombing.

 

According to the report by RebuildUA and KSE Institute, digitized information about the infrastructure of the village shows that two thousand buildings were damaged or destroyed in the Moschun during the war. 

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, in the Moschun 921 private houses were damaged or destroyed, as well as farm buildings and structures. As a result of hostilities, 20 industrial buildings, 18 greenhouses, 3 shops, 2 hotels, a school, a church, a house of culture, and a post office were also destroyed and damaged. 

 

The largest losses in the total amount were caused to the village due to the destruction of private houses and amounted to UAH 954 million or $32.6 million. Losses from damage and destruction of business premises are estimated at UAH 94.7 million, or more than $3.2 million. Losses of enterprise assets amounted to UAH 21 million, or $718 thousand. 

 

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Damages to Ukraine’s infrastructure. May 2

As of May 2, the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is almost $92 billion or over UAH 2.7 trillion. During the last week, direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), increased by almost $4.5 billion.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion. 

 

The new calculations of the project add the КSE Institute estimates on the loss of cars (determined on the basis of indirect methods) caused by the destruction, damage or seizure of private cars. According to KSE analysts, there are at least 89.5 thousand such cars, and the total value of such cars, according to preliminary estimates, is more than $1.3 billion. 

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 195 factories and enterprises, 231 healthcare institutions, 543 kindergartens, 940 educational institutions, 295 bridges and bridge crossings, and 151 warehousing infrastructure have been damaged, destroyed or seized. In addition, at least 97 religious and 144 cultural buildings were damaged or destroyed during the war. As a result of hostilities, at least 23.8 thousand kilometers of roads and 33.7 mln square meters of housing stock were damaged, destroyed or seized.

 

As of May 2, the direct damage caused to Ukraine’s enterprise assets has reached almost $10 billion.

 

 

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Damages to Ukraine’s infrastructure. April 26

As of April 26, the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is almost $88 billion or almost UAH 2.6 trillion. During the last week, direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), increased by $3.1 billion.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion. 

 

Overall, during the 62 days of Russia’s war against Ukraine, 23 574 kilometers of roads, 37 million square meters of real estate were damaged, destroyed or seized. Compared to the last week, the number of damaged or destroyed objects has increased, and now at least 535 kindergartens, 866 educational institutions, 231 medical institutions, 173 factories and enterprises were damaged by the war. The list of damage and destruction due to the war includes at least 75 administrative buildings, 277 bridges and bridge crossings, 11 military airfields, 17 airports and 2 ports. At least 95 religious and 130 other cultural buildings were damaged, destroyed or seized.

 

Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions are among the regions where educational institutions were most damaged and destroyed. Since the war began, more than 30% of educational institutions in the Donetsk region were destroyed and damaged, in the Luhansk region – more than 23%, in the Kharkiv region – almost 19%. In the capital, more than 5%.

 

 

The largest losses in the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages are the costs of housing and enterprise assets. Thus, 40% of the total number of damaged, destroyed or seized residential buildings and enterprises is in Donetsk region, 23% is concentrated in Kharkiv region, 12% – in Chernihiv region and 8% – in Kyiv region.

 

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Damages to Ukraine’s infrastructure. April 18

As of April 18, the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is $84.8 billion or almost UAH 2.5 trillion. During the last week, direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), increased by $4.45 billion.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion. 

 

Overall, during the 54 days of Russia’s war against Ukraine, 23 thousand kilometers of roads, 37 thousand square meters of real estate were damaged, destroyed or seized. Compared to the last week, the number of damaged or destroyed objects has increased, and now at least 406 kindergartens, 605 educational institutions, 206 medical institutions, 154 factories and enterprises were damaged by the war. The list of damage and destruction due to the war includes at least 68 administrative buildings, 277 bridges and bridge crossings, 11 military airfields, 17 airports and 2 ports. Also, as of April 18, at least 91 religious and 115 other cultural buildings were damaged, destroyed or seized.

 

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Damages to Ukraine's infrastructure. April 11

During the last week, direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), increased by $12.2 billion. As of April 11, the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is $80 billion.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion.

 

During the 47 days of Russian aggression in Ukraine, 23 thousand kilometers of roads, 37 thousand square meters of real estate, 319 kindergartens, 205 medical institutions, 546 educational institutions, 145 factories and enterprises were damaged, destroyed or seized. In addition, 54 administration buildings, 277 bridges and bridge crossings, 10 military airfields, 8 airports, 2 ports were damaged by the war. Thus, as of April 11, at least 74 religious buildings and 62 other cultural buildings were damaged, destroyed or seized.

 

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Damages to Ukraine's infrastructure. April 1

Direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), over the last week alone are over USD 5 billion. As of April 1, the total amount of damages is $68,2 billion.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, total economic losses since the beginning of the war are at least $564-600 billion. These losses take into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc).

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s military aggression on February 24, at least 533 institutions of secondary and higher education, 300 kindergartens, 196 healthcare institutions, 129 factories/ warehouses. The Ministry of Community and Territorial Development estimates that 6,800 residential buildings were damaged or destroyed. According to the KSE Institute, the total amount of damaged / destroyed residential real estate is about 26 million square meters. In addition, 54 administration buildings, 260 bridges and bridge crossings, 10 military airfields, 8 airports, 2 ports were damaged by the war. During full-scale Russia’s invasion, the occupiers caused damage to Ukraine, destroying or damaging 64 religious buildings and 51 cultural objects.

 

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Damages to Ukraine's infrastructure. March 24

As of March 24, the damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure during the war has already reached $63 billion, or more than UAH 1,8 trillion.

 

Compared to the previous estimate published on March 17, taking into account the new data on damage, as well as improving the methodology and more accurate assessment of various objects, the condition of which can be better determined, net growth amounted to $3.5 billion.

 

As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $543 billion to $600 billion.

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s military aggression on February 24, at least 4431 residential buildings, 92 factories/ warehouses, 378 institutions of secondary and higher education, 138 healthcare institutions, 12 airports, 7 thermal power plants/hydroelectric power plants have been damaged, destroyed or seized in Ukraine.

 

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Damages to Ukraine's infrastructure. March 17

During the week, the damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure in the war started by Russia increased by at least $8.4 billion. On March 17, this amount was 1.8 trillion hryvnias or $62.7 billion. Compared to the previous estimate published on March 10, the amount of losses increased by 330 billion hryvnias or $8.4 billion.

 

Since the beginning of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine on February 24, at least 411 educational institutions, 36 health care facilities, 1,600 residential buildings, 26 factories / storages, 15 airports, 6 thermal power stations / hydroelectric power stations, etc. 6 TPPs / HPPs, etc. were damaged, destroyed or captured. In addition, more than 15,000 kilometers of roads, 5,000 kilometers of railways were “lost”, 350 bridges and bridge crossings were destroyed, etc.

 

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Damages to Ukraine's infrastructure. March 10

According to the preliminary estimate of KSE, the total value of damaged / destroyed objects in case of their complete destruction can be up to 1.5 trillion hryvnias or up to $54.3 billion.

 

However, the cost of repairing these losses is likely to be much higher, as it will be necessary to dismantle the destroyed buildings / structures and totally rebuild a significant number of them.

 

In particular, according to the latest information, at least 200 educational institutions, 30 health care facilities, 8 churches, 1,600 residential buildings, 19 office buildings, 23 factories / storages, 12 airports, 5 thermal power stations / hydroelectric power stations, etc. have been damaged and / or completely destroyed. In addition, more than 15,000 kilometers of roads, 5,000 kilometers of railways, 12 airports, 350 bridges and bridge crossings, etc. were destroyed / disabled.

 

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METHODS FOR EVALUATING

These calculations are based on the analysis of several thousands of public notifications from Ukrainian citizens, the government, local authorities about losses and damages throughout the country, as well as indirect assessment methods such as calculating the estimated area of the war-damaged property in the most affected cities.

 

The methodology also includes the World Bank’s experience in analyzing losses in Syria and Iraq, as well as the recommendations of the leading Ukrainian investment company Dragon Capital. We are going to continue this work in the future, which will allow us to detail the assessment of the object by regions and types of buildings, losses of utilities and infrastructure, etc.

 

Indirect methods of estimating the value of destroyed residential real estate have been used due to the lack of regular public updates on the total number of destroyed and damaged dwellings, in particular by region and the number of private / apartment buildings. Also, the assessment of the value of damaged and destroyed housing now also includes the assessment of the need for expenditures for the dismantling of destroyed buildings and repairs in the buildings to be built. The valuation of the assets of enterprises no longer takes into account depreciation and added work in progress and inventories. Receipt of updated and detailed data from the Ministry of Infrastructure on the current amount of damaged / destroyed infrastructure objects, as well as their replacement value.

 

These estimates are not exhaustive: information on numerous damages and destruction may be missing due to the inability of citizens, local and state authorities to promptly record the damage in each city and town. Also, due to the lack of information at this stage, the assessment includes only losses from destruction / destruction of buildings, not taking into account the cost of equipment (including hospitals, research institutions, damaged vehicles, etc.). These estimates will be gradually added in the next stages of updating the indicator.

 

Currently, the evaluation does not take into account information on damage to natural resources, animal husbandry, stocks of companies (in warehouses, shops, etc.), moveable property, military property, telecommunication operators’ property, etc. caused by combat and mining operations. This information will be supplemented and clarified after the end of hostilities in the relevant regions of Ukraine.

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