Damages and losses to Ukraine’s energy sector due to Russia’s full-scale invasion exceeded $56 billion — KSE Institute estimate as of May 2024

10 June 2024

As a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the energy sector suffered damages and losses of $56.5 billion, while the recovery needs, which include the complete reconstruction of destroyed facilities on the principle of “Build Back Better,” amount to $50.5 billion.

The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) analytical team estimates that  damages in Ukraine’s energy sector as of May 2024 amounted to more than $16.1 billion. The largest damages were incurred from the destruction of electricity generation objects ($8.5 billion), transmission facilities ($2.1 billion), and oil and gas infrastructure ($3.3 billion).

During the full-scale invasion, approximately 18 GW of electricity generating capacity was occupied, including Europe’s largest nuclear power plant — the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, the Kakhovska and Dniprovska hydroelectric power plants and the Zmiivska and Trypilska thermal power plants were completely destroyed.

Private thermal power plants, including the Ladyzhynska, Burshtynska, Dobrotvirska, Kurakhivska, Kryvoriz`ka, and Prydniprovska thermal power plants, suffered critical damage of over 80%. Approximately half of the high-voltage substations for electricity transmission were damaged. Russian forces essentially destroyed all oil refineries in Ukraine, as well as a significant portion of the infrastructure for storing oil and petroleum products.

The losses of Ukraine’s energy sector are estimated to be almost $40.4 billion, with the majority of this amount stemming from lost revenues of energy companies — $39.9 billion. The remaining $0.5 billion is attributed to the costs of debris removal and dismantling of damaged facilities.

The restoration of Ukraine’s energy sector requires substantial financial investment, preliminarily assessed by the KSE analytical team at $50.5 billion. This amount includes the financial requirement for the full reconstruction of destroyed and damaged energy infrastructure, considering the principle of “Build Back Better” ($48.5 billion), and $2 billion to address the liquidity needs of energy companies caused by war-related revenue losses.

The restoration needs of the power energy industry are estimated at a total of $33.8 billion, including $29.3 billion for generation capacities. Another $4.6 billion is needed to restore the electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure. The estimated cost of restoring the oil and gas sector is $14.8 billion, and the district heating sector is $1.4 billion, excluding the restoration of large combined heat and power plants.

The assessment of damages and losses was carried out by the analytical team of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) in accordance with the World Bank methodology, taking into account a significant amount of microdata collected by relevant government authorities, local civil-military administrations, and energy companies since the start of the full-scale war, as well as open sources due to limited access to data because of the high risk of disseminating security-sensitive information.