As of February 2023, the total amount of damage caused by russia to Ukraine’s infrastructure during the full-scale war has increased by another $6 billion and is now estimated at $143.8 billion (at replacement cost). According to experts from the KSE “Russia will pay” project, damages to infrastructure, education, energy, transport, trade, and healthcare continue to grow.
The KSE Institute has published an annual report on the damage caused to Ukraine in the war provoked by russia. The full version is available on the Kyiv School of Economics and the “Russia will pay” project websites.
On Monday, March 20th, KSE Institute conducted the presentation and discussion with the participation of the Deputy Minister of Community Development, Territories, and Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandra Azarkhina, and the Head of the Agency for Reconstruction and Infrastructure Projects Mustafa Nayem.
This event and conducted damage assessment are activities under the Good Governance Fund Project: Building government capacity for recurring war damage and recovery cost assessment, which is implemented by Kyiv School of Economics in cooperation with Abt Britain and with support by UK Aid from the UK Government.
The damage assessment was carried out within the framework of the National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of the war. The analytical team works together with the Ministry of Community Development and Territories, the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Ministry of Health, under the coordination of the Ministry of Reintegration Temporarily Occupied Territories and in cooperation with other relevant ministries and the National Bank of Ukraine.
The amount of damage from the destruction of housing stock remains at the level of $53.6 billion. In total, over 150,000 residential buildings, including private, multi-apartment buildings, and dormitories, were damaged or destroyed.
In second place in terms of the amount of damage is the sphere of infrastructure. According to the results of a year of full-scale war, damages in this sphere are estimated at $36.2 billion. During this time, more than 25,000 kilometres of state and local roads, as well as 344 bridges and overpasses were destroyed or damaged. According to the Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories, and Infrastructure Development, 78 bridges or overpasses on state-owned roads have been restored. Most of them were restored in Kyiv (20 out of 24 objects) and Chernihiv (20 out of 27 objects) regions. In 2023, 2 bridge crossings in Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions were restored.
In the new calculations, the amount of damage caused to the forests of Ukraine has been added for the first time. According to the results of the first year of the full-scale war, the damage amounts to $4.5 billion.
Due to the war started by Russia, educational institutions continue to be damaged and destroyed, with the current number standing at 3,170. Among them, almost 1,500 are secondary education institutions, 909 are preschools, and 528 are higher education institutions. As of the end of February 2023, damages in the field of education increased by $300 million compared to the December calculations, bringing the total to $8.9 billion.
Damages caused to Ukraine’s energy sector have also increased, amounting to $8.1 billion. The increase in the estimate occurred in relation to previously caused damages in the nuclear energy sector, as well as in connection with updated calculations on the damage caused to natural gas transportation facilities.
The number of damages caused to the agriculture complex and land resources has increased by another $2.1 billion. Currently, the estimate of damages in this area is $8.7 billion.
Direct losses in trade and healthcare have also increased. According to the calculations of project experts, by the end of winter 2023, the number of damages caused to trade increased to $2.6 billion. The medical industry suffered infrastructure destruction of another $100 million, bringing the total direct losses of this area to an estimated $1.8 billion.
At the same time, in the latest calculations, experts of the KSE project “Russia Will Pay” have reduced the estimate of damages to industries and enterprises from $13 billion as of December 2022 to $11.3 billion as of the end of February 2023. The decrease occurred due to the reassessment of the status of enterprises after receiving updated information about the damage to assets caused by shelling. Individual enterprises were reclassified and will later be included in the calculations of losses in other sectors of the economy.
The project team also includes volunteers from the Centre for Economic Strategy, Dragon Capital, the Anti-Corruption Headquarters, the Institute of Analysis and Advocacy, Transparency International Ukraine, Prozorro.Sale, Prozorro, Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centres, CoST Ukraine, Vkursi Agro, TVIS Ukraine, Retail Association of Ukraine, Culver Aviation, Centre for Innovations Development.
This assessment is fully funded by UK aid from the UK government. The work also became possible due to the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The estimate and its result do not necessarily reflect the views of the UK government’s official policies, the United States Government, and the United States Agency for International Development.