Total economic losses since the beginning of the war are estimated at $564-600 billion or above
During the last week, direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (that is, this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher), increased by $12.2 billion. As of April 11, the total amount of direct documented infrastructure damages, based only on public sources, is $80 billion.
This can be seen from the analysis by the KSE Institute team (the analytical unit of Kyiv School of Economics) within the framework of the Russia will pay project and volunteers from partner organizations, in particular, from the Center for Economic Strategy, the Anti-Corruption Headquarters, Institute of Analysis and Advocacy, Transparency International Ukraine and Prozorro.Sale.
As estimated by the Ministry of Economy and KSE, the overall Ukraine’s economic losses due to the war, taking into account both direct losses calculated in this project and indirect losses (GDP decline, investment cessation, outflow of labor, additional defense and social support costs, etc), range from $564 billion to $600 billion.
During the 47 days of Russian aggression in Ukraine, 23 thousand kilometers of roads, 37 thousand square meters of real estate, 319 kindergartens, 205 medical institutions, 546 educational institutions, 145 factories and enterprises were damaged, destroyed or seized. In addition, 54 administration buildings, 277 bridges and bridge crossings, 10 military airfields, 8 airports, 2 ports were damaged by the war. Thus, as of April 11, at least 74 religious buildings and 62 other cultural buildings were damaged, destroyed or seized.
The largest increase in the value of damages this week was due to the increase in “residential real estate”, which was caused both by the increase in destruction and the refinement of previous data on the earlier destruction, as well as some adjustments in methodology. The second reason for the growth is the loss of enterprises assets. The cost of health care facilities, taking into account the structure of these facilities in terms of types (hospitals, clinics, clinics, laboratories, etc.) was specified also in the updated calculations.
Direct losses to civilian infrastructure documented based on publicly available evidence (this is a lower bound estimate and the true losses are likely to be times higher) as of April 11, 2022
An analysis of the direct losses of infrastructure facilities based on publicly available evidence shows that metallurgy, coke and oil refineries, and mechanical engineering suffered the most. According to analysts, the total amount of direct documented losses in the industry is $6.25 billion.
Direct losses to assets of enterprises due to the war, by industries, $ billion, as of April 11
The project focuses on assessing the damage caused to Ukraine’s physical infrastructure during the war (destruction of residential buildings, utilities, roads, railways, educational and medical facilities, etc.); and estimating the financial value of these damages. The project does not assess total economic losses, including not only direct infrastructure losses but also numerous “incidental” costs to the economy due to the war (closure of many businesses; loss of hundreds of thousands of homes and jobs; termination of any investments; reduction of consumer demand, etc.).
Every citizen can also submit information about the loss of physical infrastructure, including residential buildings, due to the war. For this purpose, the KSE Institute team has created the RUSSIA WILL PAY resource (https://damaged.in.ua/), where every citizen can submit data on damage to buildings, businesses, roads, and other facilities right now. Everyone can also submit information about damages using the chatbot.
Methods for evaluating financial losses from damage to the project:
These calculations are based on the analysis of several thousands of public notifications from Ukrainian citizens, the government, local authorities about losses and damages throughout the country, as well as indirect assessment methods such as calculating the estimated area of the war-damaged property in the most affected cities.
The methodology also includes the World Bank’s experience in analyzing losses in Syria and Iraq, as well as the recommendations of the leading Ukrainian investment company Dragon Capital. We are going to continue this work in the future, which will allow us to detail the assessment of the object by regions and types of buildings, losses of utilities and infrastructure, etc.
Indirect methods of estimating the value of destroyed residential real estate have been used due to the lack of regular public updates on the total number of destroyed and damaged dwellings, in particular by region and the number of private / apartment buildings. Also, the assessment of the value of damaged and destroyed housing now also includes the assessment of the need for expenditures for the dismantling of destroyed buildings and repairs in the buildings to be built. The valuation of the assets of enterprises no longer takes into account depreciation and added work in progress and inventories. Receipt of updated and detailed data from the Ministry of Infrastructure on the current amount of damaged / destroyed infrastructure objects, as well as their replacement value.
These estimates are not exhaustive: information on numerous damages and destruction may be missing due to the inability of citizens, local and state authorities to promptly record the damage in each city and town. Also, due to the lack of information at this stage, the assessment includes only losses from destruction / destruction of buildings, not taking into account the cost of equipment (including hospitals, research institutions, damaged vehicles, etc.). These estimates will be gradually added in the next stages of updating the indicator.
Currently, the evaluation does not take into account information on damage to natural resources, animal husbandry, stocks of companies (in warehouses, shops, etc.), moveable property, military property, telecommunication operators’ property, etc. caused by combat and mining operations. This information will be supplemented and clarified after the end of hostilities in the relevant regions of Ukraine.