As of August 1, 2022, the amount of damage to Ukraine’s economy from the damage and destruction of residential and non-residential buildings and infrastructure (in monetary terms) has reached at least $108.3 bln.
The assessment is the result of joint work of the KSE Institute, the government authorities under the leadership of the Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, and the Ministry for Communities and Territories Development in cooperation with other ministries and partner organizations under the umbrella of The National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of the War.
Compared to the previous estimate as of June 13, 2022, the total amount of documented damages increased by $12.8 bln. The key factor in the growth was the increase in the number of damaged and destroyed housing. This is the largest share of the total amount of damages. According to the latest data, at least 129,900 residential buildings were destroyed and damaged, of which 114,700 were private houses and 15,100 — apartment buildings. Damages due to the destruction of apartment buildings amount to $42.3 billion, and another $5.4 billion is damages caused to private houses.
The total amount of damages caused to the infrastructure has reached $31.6 billion. As a result of hostilities, damages to enterprises and industry are already estimated at $8.8 billion.
The increase in the total amount of documented damages is also related to the growth in the number of destroyed and damaged education, health care, and social sphere facilities. As of August 1, 2022, 2,217 educational facilities were destroyed for $3.8 billion, damages caused to 903 medical facilities are $1.6 billion, and damages to 89 social sphere objects were estimated more than $300 million.
Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 388 enterprises, 18 civilian airports, 764 kindergartens, 23 shopping centers, 43.7 thousand agricultural machinery, 1991 shops, 27 shopping centers, 511 administrative buildings, 28 oil depots, 105,200 private cars, 634 cultural facilities have been damaged, destroyed or seized.
The amount of losses increased to a lesser extent — by $1.8 billion, and as of August 1, 2022, this amount is preliminarily estimated at $128.8 billion or UAH 3.7 trillion. After all, a complete or partial shutdown of a significant number of enterprises and institutions leads to a complete or partial shutdown of activities, loss of income, and an increase in expenses related to the war (for relocation, assistance to employees, etc.). The largest share of losses as a result of the full-scale war, started by russia, is in the sphere of industry and Ukrainian enterprises — $29.8 billion.
According to experts’ estimates, the recovery needs for destroyed assets are at least $185 billion or almost UAH 5.4 trillion. Recovery needs have increased by $19.9 billion compared to the last estimates due to the growth in the number of destroyed and damaged objects. 40% of this amount is needed to rebuild the housing stock — $75.3 billion. Another $42.3 billion is needed to recover Ukraine’s infrastructure. $18.3 billion and $17.5 billion — needs to restore the agro-industrial complex and land resources and industry and enterprises, accordingly.
The total amount of recovery needs takes into account only the reconstruction of destroyed objects according to the Build Back Better principle, taking into account modernization, and the additional need for liquidity for the restoration of enterprises. At the same time, this assessment does not take into account the general needs for the recovery of the economy, as well as additional needs for the modernization of assets that have not suffered damage and destruction. According to the Government’s estimates, taking into account these categories, the total need for financing the recovery and modernization of the economy is $750 billion.
The detailed methodology is available in the report dated June 13, 2022.
Damages by sector breakdown, in monetary terms, as of August, 1, 2022
* The specified property types of damages are not exhaustive in the following sectors.
** Due to a technical mistake, the data calculations from 06/13/2022 incorrectly indicated damages caused by the destruction of private and apartment buildings.
Damages, losses and reconstruction and recovery needs by sector breakdown, in monetary terms, as of August,1, 2022, $bln
The project team also includes volunteers from the Center for Economic Strategy, Dragon Capital, the Anti-Corruption Headquarters, Institute of Analysis and Advocacy, Transparency International Ukraine, Prozorro.Sale, Prozorro, Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, CoST Ukraine, Vkursi Agro, TVIS Ukraine, Retail Association of Ukraine, Culver Aviation, Center for Innovations Development.
This assessment became possible due to the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Competitive Economy Program in Ukraine. The estimate and its result do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.