Agricultural Outlook Ukraine

Outlook Ukraine – projection assessments of agricultural markets and the agricultural sector of Ukraine, and a consortium of the same name consisting of Polissia National University, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, and the Center for Food and Land Use Research (KSE Agrocenter). The consortium was created to develop assessments for the development of Ukraine’s agricultural sector and to provide the Ukrainian government, society, and other interested parties with reliable and multifaceted data regarding the state of the agricultural sector in Ukraine.

Consortium experts use a range of methodologies, the main one being the AGMEMOD model. The AGMEMOD model is used for developing annual projections for agricultural commodity markets for EU member countries and some other countries, including Ukraine. Moreover, the model is also used in scenario analysis to assess the potential impacts of various policies and shocks on agricultural commodity markets.

Communication activities of the Consortium are supported by the project of German-Ukrainian bilateral cooperation “German-Ukrainian agricultural policy dialogue”.

About Outlook Ukraine’s assessments

Ukraine has long been an important exporter of staple foods. However, the full-scale invasion by Russia has inflicted serious damage and losses to the agricultural sector (KSE), leading to increased volatility in global commodity prices and exacerbating food security issues worldwide.

In this context, creating fair and accurate projections for Ukraine’s agricultural sector becomes a necessity. For this purpose, the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model is used — an econometric, dynamic, multi-country, and multi-market model. The model covers all EU member states and some non-EU countries, including Ukraine, the Balkan countries, Kazakhstan, with a stylized version of the rest of the world (RoW). It provides annual forecasts for the main agricultural commodity markets. These markets are modeled using equations that take into account demand and supply, stock levels, international trade, and market prices, reflecting the economic agents’ response to price changes and external factors such as agricultural policy, GDP, exchange rates, import tariffs, and other factors.

The project is dedicated to the regular updating of the model with new data to respond to the rapidly changing political environment. The main goal is to create forecasts that will not only facilitate the formulation of informed policies but also increase market transparency for domestic agricultural enterprises and our foreign allies. Furthermore, these efforts are aimed at ensuring long-term alignment with European sustainable development goals, promoting a strategic and cohesive approach to agricultural policy development and market growth