On November 28, 2023, the Center for Food and Land Use Research at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE Agrocenter) organized the seminar «The African countries and Ukraine partnership: mutually beneficial cooperation with Northern Africa».

In the beginning of the seminar, Dr. Mariia Bogonos, head of KSE Agrocenter, welcomed the speakers and the guests and summarized the findings of the first seminar within the «Ukraine-African countries cooperation» series that included the importance of North Africa region for Ukrainian agricultural exports and of the diplomatic relations between the countries for facilitation of the trade and other types of cooperation. She as well stressed that the full-scale war in Ukraine undermined the potential of local agricultural production and negatively affected food security in main exporting destinations, particularly, in North Africa.

Dr. Monika Tothova, senior economist in Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), presented the context of food security dynamics in North Africa. 

Main points:

• Global hunger did not change much from 2021 to 2022 but remains far above pre-pandemic levels. 

• Around 122 mln. more people in the world were facing hunger in 2022 than in 2019. 

• In Africa, by contrast to other regions, the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity increased in 2022.

• North Africa is the most food secure region on the continent. Nevertheless, local population faces malnutrition, which includes not only undernutrition, but also overnutrition and deficit of nutrients.

• Cereal production is unevenly distributed across the African continent. Western Africa is the leader. The production in North Africa is mostly rain-fed and therefore show high variability across the years (it is the second lowest after the Central Africa). 

• Cereals account for 50% of the average daily kcal intake in Africa; wheat and rice are particularly important. Meanwhile, the share of «traditional cereals» (sorghum, pearl millet, finger millet, teff and African rice) in the local diets decrease due to urbanization and changing consumption preferences: it is easier for urban population, usually having more dynamic lifestyle than the rural population, to consume calories from wheat and rice. Overall, maize overtakes all of the cereals in terms of consumption importance. 

• Generally, in Africa around 70% of domestic utilization of cereals is covered by local production. This share is much lower in North Africa (about 40%) by contrast to Southern Africa (90%). Over the last five years, North Africa covered around 40% of domestic demand for wheat by own production. For corn and rice, these shares were 30% and 80%, respectively. 

• Agricultural policy of North African countries provides incentives to increase domestic production. For example, in Morocco, local farmers are supported via reference prices, storage premium and import duties.

• By contrast to other North African countries, Egyptian cereal production is almost entirely irrigated and shows relatively stable production. Meanwhile, Egypt sought to diversify its import base. In particular, India, Serbia, and Portugal were approved as new origins in the last season. The government allowed the state buyer GASC the right to contract directly with any government or company without the need to make an international tender as it was in the past.

• Generally, domestic consumption is increasing in all of the North African countries. This growth is constrained by low land and water availability, and adverse climate changes, which are reflected in more frequent occurrence of droughts. 

• The growing demand in the region is based mostly on population growth while per capita consumption remains relatively stable. 

• Urbanization process in North Africa is ongoing. This makes food price shocks more politically sensitive given that urban population tends to strike in the periods of food inflation. 

Presentation

Dr. Pavlo Martyshev, researcher at KSE Agrocenter, provided overview of strengths, challenges and cooperation options between Ukraine and North Africa in agriculture. 

Main points:

• Ukraine is the largest agricultural producer in Europe. In terms of grains exports, its contribution to global food security was equivalent to feeding about 332 mln. people in 2021 (in addition to its own population). However, the share of agriculture in gross value added dropped due to the war.

• Ukraine’s grains and oilseeds production boomed over the last decades making the country the 3ʳᵈ place in corn exports, the 5ᵗʰ place in wheat exports, and 1ˢᵗ place in sunflower oil exports (as of 2021).

• By contrast to crop sector, livestock production in Ukraine was declining with only poultry production characterized by growth.

• Ukraine intensively trades with North African countries, especially Egypt. Ukrainian exports include mostly grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils. Meanwhile, North African countries supply fruits, nuts, and vegetables to Ukraine. 

• Strong sides of Ukraine’s agricultural sector are: favorable natural conditions, fast-growing sector of agricultural technologies, high competitiveness on the world market, synchronization with the EU quality and safety standards, modern digital tools used in agricultural policy, strong scientific base in some sectors.

• The main cooperation options between Ukraine and North Africa in agriculture include liberalization of cereals and vegetable oils exports as well as seed exports, common irrigation projects, synchronization of meat and dairy markets, development of agricultural extension services and education, exports of Specialized nutritious foods within the WFP programs.

• The partnership could be challenged by further war escalation in Ukraine, political instability in the Middle East and Africa regions, focus only on short-term trade operations, inconsistent macroeconomic and food policies in the partner countries.

Presentation

Prof. Dr. Abdelali Laamari, professor in the National Institute for Agricultural Research (Morocco), presented the view from Morocco, strengths and challenges of the local agri-food sector and cooperation options.

Main points:

• The share of agriculture in Moroccan economy is high: 40% of the total employment and 12% of gross value added.

• The main challenges for local agriculture includes soil degradation, droughts, inefficient water management systems, disparities between large and small farms due to parceling of property, lack of sufficient investments, absence of proper diversification of crops, water scarcity, problems in research and innovation.

• Since 2008, local agricultural policy is aligned to Green Morocco Plan aimed to make the sector more transparent and ecologically-oriented.

• Ukraine is a promising market for Moroccan agri-food exports, particularly, in the segment of fruits, vegetables, fish, and fertilizers.

• Morocco is deeply integrated with other African countries within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and increases own presence on the continent. 

• Cooperation between Morocco and Ukraine could be conducted in such areas as: improvement of new plant varieties, capacity building and knowledge transfer in agricultural research, trade agreements, collaborative research on critical issues facing agriculture in Africa.

Presentation

Prof. Dr. Osama Naser El-Din Ahmed, associate professor in the Agricultural economics department in Cairo University (Egypt) and research associate at the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) shared his view on Egyptian agricultural sector.

Main points:

• Egypt faces water scarcity which is deepening due to intensification of agriculture, river dams, and industrialization of the country. This creates the additional risks for local crop production given the increased frequency of extreme weather events.

• Soil erosion is another problem; it is exacerbated by urbanization, unsustainable agricultural practices, climatic factors, overexploitation. 

• Traditional farming practices in Egypt assumes the intensive use of pesticides, chemical fertilizers, and mixed seeds. This negatively affects productivity and human health.

• Egyptian agriculture shows high level of post-harvest losses due to the inadequate infrastructure: unpaved inner roads, outdated transport and storage facilities. 

• Local farmers have low market access as they need to sell own products with discount to wholesalers which have market power.

• Agricultural extension services are underdeveloped in Egypt due to the lack of qualified specialists, transport facilities, low financial support.

• Growing population challenges food security in the country as it increases the intensity of using limited natural resources in agriculture. 

• The potential collaboration between Ukraine and North African countries could be implemented in the form of agribusiness hub (online or on-site) which ensures smooth exchange of technologies and stimulates bilateral trade.

Presentation

Dr. Dmytro Prykhodko, senior economist in FAO, presented own vision and current state of partnership between Ukraine and North African countries.  

Main points:

• Despite the war, Ukraine remains second largest exporter of wheat to Egypt. The role of small exporters operating on Danube river is crucial for supply of Ukrainian wheat to private importers in Egypt.

• Structure of consumption in African countries is going to change due to increased income levels. Consumption of animal products, vegetable oils, and processed food products will increase in the following years.

• Egypt is experiencing the growth of domestic production coupled with land reclamation projects. Exports of wheat flour from Ukraine stagnates while Egypt (the largest importer of Ukrainian wheat) exports more wheat flour than Ukraine.

• The cooperation options related to agriculture education should be focused on technical specialties: veterinary, agronomy (with focus on irrigative and precision farming), engineers (precision farming).

Presentation

During the panel discussion, Dr. Mariia Bogonos highlighted three major areas of partnership between Ukraine and North African states: trade, research and education, and irrigation. The panelists discussed the opportunities for North African states to reach self-sufficiency in respect to constrained natural resources. Dr. Monika Tothova mentioned that local demand growth will outpace local production growth in the next decades, therefore, the space for agricultural imports in the region will remain essential. Prof. Laamari added that production costs of cereals in the region are very high compared to grain exporting countries. This limits the profitability of local farmers despite the subsidies. This problem could be partially solved by the more intensive use of high-quality certified seeds. According to Prof. Osama Naser El-Din Ahmed, grain production in Egypt has more social than economic aspect given the large number of small farmers which do not have jobs outside the farm. The main goal of local government is stimulation of increasing productivity. Dr. Dmytro Prikhodko confirmed that Egypt plans to expand own grain production because the country borrows from international donors to build additional grain storage capacities. The main tool to increase North African crop production is technology of precision agriculture that reduces water use. As for Ukrainian exporters, they should focus on quality and safety of their products. Conducting phytosanitary treatment of exported cereals reduces the risks of rejections from Egyptian importers and setting a lower price.

Overall, the seminar allowed to highlight the core streams for partnership between Ukraine and North Africa in agri-food sector.