The amount of damage to Ukraine’s economy from the damage and destruction of residential and non-residential buildings and infrastructure (in monetary terms) is at least $95.5 bln or more than UAH 2.6 trillion.

Compared to the previous estimate of June 8, 2022, the total amount of damages decreased by $8.4 billion. The key factor in the decrease was the updated information and microdata from government agencies that made it possible to refine calculations regarding the amount and average cost of damages. The biggest change relates to the estimation of housing stock damages, in particular, due to more accurate calculations of the average area of damaged residential buildings, as well as the estimation of road damages by clarifying the average cost per kilometer and the number of damaged roads in already liberated regions. At the same time, there was an increase in the number of kilometers of damaged roads in regions where active hostilities are currently taking place, and as a result, an increase in the assessment of damage to these roads. 

The assessment is the result of joint work of the KSE Institute, the government authorities under the leadership of the Ministry of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, and the Ministry for Communities and Territories Development in cooperation with other ministries under the umbrella of The National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the Consequences of the War. The results of this assessment were presented during the international Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, and are part of the report on the Ukraine Recovery Plan.

In the total amount of damages, the largest share is caused to residential buildings — 38% or $36.6 bln. Almost 121,000 residential buildings, homes for almost a million families, have already been destroyed and damaged as a result of hostilities. In second place in terms of damage is infrastructure – $31.3 bln. 

Missile attacks cause crucial damage to the industry, infrastructure, and other assets. Damage to businesses amounts at least $8 bln and is growing rapidly. These are the damages to small businesses, as well as large and medium-sized enterprises of state and private ownership, based on the received microdata. Another $4.3 billion — damages caused to the agricultural sector and agro-enterprises.

Since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine, at least 388 enterprises, 18 civilian airports, 779 medical institutions, 1,371 educational institutions, 690 kindergartens, 23 shopping centers, 28 oil depots, 105,200 private cars, 563 cultural and religious facilities have been damaged, destroyed or seized. At the same time, as of July 5, 43 bridges have already been restored and 941 km of state roads have been demined, according to the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine.

For the first time, a preliminary assessment of losses and recovery needs is presented. The total preliminary assessment of losses of Ukraine’s economy are $126.8bln or UAH 3.7 trillion. After all, a complete or partial shutdown of a significant number of enterprises and institutions leads to a complete or partial shutdown of enterprises’ activities, loss of income, and an increase in expenses related to the war (for relocation, assistance to employees, etc.).

According to preliminary KSE Institute team estimates, the recovery needs for destroyed assets is at least $165.1 bln or UAH 4.8 trillion. This assessment takes into account only the reconstruction of destroyed objects, technological modernization, and the additional need for liquidity for business entities to resume their activities. Another limitation of the current assessment is that it does not take into account the introduction of new standards in the construction of roads, public facilities, and modernization needs not directly related to the wartime consequences.

As well, these estimates do not take into account the damages and needs for the ecology, in particular the forest fund, and the demining needs of all land, water objects, and buildings (except modest estimates for agricultural sector and coastal tourist zones). According to the preliminary World Bank’s assessment, demining all territories requires more than $70bln. 

According to the government’s estimates presented in Lugano, the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine is approximately $750 billion. This amount includes not only the cost of rebuilding the destroyed facilities but also the need for fiscal support, modernization, and strengthening capacity of key economic sectors, as well as assistance to resume business and enterprise activities.

The detailed methodology is available via the link.

*The specified property types of damages are not exhaustive in the following sectors.

The results of this assessment are part of the report on the Ukraine Recovery Plan, as of June 13, 2022.

On July 15th, 2022, KSE Institute will hold a detailed discussion of the report on the assessment of damages, losses, and recovery needs by key economic sectors and the main approaches to calculations. Follow the KSE Facebook page for updates.

The project team also includes volunteers from the Center for Economic Strategy, Dragon Capital, the Anti-Corruption Headquarters, Institute of Analysis and Advocacy, Transparency International Ukraine, Prozorro.Sale, Prozorro, Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, CoST Ukraine, Vkursi Agro, TVIS Ukraine, Retail Association of Ukraine, Culver Aviation, Center for Innovations Development. 

This assessment became possible due to the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Competitive Economy Program in Ukraine. The estimate and its result do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. 

*The specified property types of damages are not exhaustive in the following sectors.

The results of this assessment are part of the report on the Ukraine Recovery Plan, as of June 13, 2022.