Academic seminar "Risky business: Political stability along the Belt and Road" by Oleksandr Shepotylo

10/15/2020 at 5:00 PM ISST



Kyiv School of Economics invites to attend an academic seminar by Oleksandr Shepotylo "Risky business: Political stability along the Belt and Road". 

About the speaker. Oleksandr Shepotylo is a professor at Aston Business School, United Kingdom and a researcher at Foreign Trade Research Center Trade+ at Kyiv School of Economics. He is an applied economist focusing on International Trade and Productivity. The central question of Oleksandr's research is how do firms, industries, and countries grow by integrating into the global markets?

Abstract. This paper explores the impact of improvements in the political environment on trade and welfare.  We use a structural gravity approach, to investigate how the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) combined with more assertive and active Chinese foreign policy would impact on global trade flows and global welfare.  In our model, the BRI benefits come from reduced trade costs, reduced bilateral political uncertainty, military alliances, and greater political stability in BRI countries.  Based on our full general results, our key findings are that (i) military alliances be-tween BRI countries and China are expected to have the most positive effect on welfare, with particularly positive effects on China and South Asia (ii) improved political stability across BRI countries is expected to have the most beneficial impact on South Asia.  These results suggest that it is important to look beyond economic gains derived from trade cost reductions; politically aligning countries participating in the BRI and providing security to the countries where China invest in transport and infrastructure has the potential to deliver significant benefits. 

This seminar is enabled by the financial support from Sweden. 

Registration for this event is closed.

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