Project manager: Oleksiy Gromyko

The full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine led to significant losses for the agricultural sector and damage to the transport infrastructure. The consequence of this was the disruption of value chains in the main branches of the agricultural sector, which threatens national and global food security.

In this context, the cooperation of the KSE Agrocenter and the UN World Food Program consists in analyzing the impact of a full-scale war on market balances and value chains in the Ukrainian agricultural sector, as well as transport infrastructure.

Scenario analysis of the impact of the grain initiative abandonment and infrastructure destruction on food balances in Ukraine

The analysis involves modeling various scenarios of the impact of the war on the Ukrainian agricultural sector using the AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model. The scenarios take into account different degrees of damage to the transport infrastructure and storage facilities. In addition, calculations are affected by assumptions regarding the end of the war, the demographic situation in the country, the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, the increase of production costs, world prices dynamics.

Calculations are made for three groups of products: 1) with significant export potential (wheat, corn, sunflower oil); 2) with low export potential (buckwheat, rye, oats); 3) basic products of daily consumption that are not exported in large volumes (potatoes, sugar, poultry, pork, eggs, dairy products). Based on the results of the analysis, forecast balances of supply and demand for these types of products for the period up to 2030 are calculated.

Evaluation of the capacities of Ukrainian logistics

The project involves measuring the capacity of the logistics system in Ukraine, in particular its main components: transport and warehouse infrastructure, fuel availability, and the efficiency of the customs service. The analysis is carried out as part of the work of the logistics cluster of the UN World Food Program. Its final result is the update of data on the parameters of the logistics infrastructure of Ukraine, introduced in 2017.

Measuring the effectiveness of value chains in the Ukrainian agricultural sector

The project involves the analysis of value chains in the frontline regions and the rest of the territory of Ukraine by three groups of products:

a) wheat-based products;

b) vegetable oils;

c) high-energy processed food products.

The results of the analysis are based on surveys of representatives of the relevant sectors and processing of open data. Based on the results of this work, it is planned to form a strategy for strengthening the of value chains sustainability in Ukraine with actionable recommendations for the main groups of stakeholders: state institutions, industry associations, international organizations (with a special focus on the UN World Food Program mandate).

Project Materials:

Ukraine Food Balances in Times of Uncertainty