We will continue to provide updated information on a monthly basis.

Prepared by the KSE Institute team and KSE members of the Board of Directors with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation; 06.09.2024-06.10.2024.

Disclaimer: At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine KSE Institute launched an analytical project, which was named “SelfSanctions”, aimed to collect data on foreign companies operating in the Russian market and limiting or terminating their activities. Examination of data was conducted jointly with specialists from the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. The database contains a lot of information, we collect daily statistics on changes in the status of foreign companies operating/operated in the Russian market and limiting or terminating their activities. Also, we created the Telegram bot https://t.me/exit_ru_bot for tracking/monitoring of news on priority foreign companies (coverage 1, 2, 3 or 7 days of monitoring). Also, we do regular analysis of changes in share prices and capitalization of parent groups of companies that have or have had business in Russia.

KSE database is partly based on the Yale’s School of Management database, the University of St.Gallen latest Paper, epravda.com.ua, squeezingputin.com, https://bloody.energy/ and leave-russia.org websites and other open sources. Data is verified and KSE status is assigned. Data on stocks is taken from Google and Yahoo Finance. At the same time, the KSE database is more complete and comprehensive and contains much more information than most other similar databases, as it also includes data on number of staff, revenue, capital and other financial indicators, the latest updates and changes in statuses, links to used sources, and daily updates from the telegram-bot etc.

KSE Institute and Leave Russia project are the part of B4Ukraine Coalition since mid-2022.

KSE Institute is glad to announce have finalized merging with project leave-russia.org which was developed by a team of volunteers.

Also, we developed an application in the  Apple Store which is available only for mobile devices in addition to our Telegram bot https://t.me/exit_ru_bot. It allows you to find any brand or company that is operating in Russia just by scanning barcodes.

On February 24, 2024 KSE Institute merged KSE status “wait” with status “stay” as 2 years of the war gave enough time for companies to leave Russia

KSE DATABASE SNAPSHOT as of 06.10.2024

Number of the companies that continue Russian operations (KSE’s status «stay»¹) – 2 176² (+21 per month)

Number of the companies that have curtailed Russian operations (KSE’s status «leave») – 1 367 (+9 per month)

Number of the companies that completed withdrawal from Russia (KSE’s status “exited”) – 427 (+4 per month)

As of October 6, 2024, we have identified about 3,970 companies, organizations and their brands from 107 countries and 58 industries and analyzed their position on the Russian market. About 40% of them are public ones, for ~1’609 public groups of companies, we also identified (where it was possible) their operating business in Russia (the presence of a controlling stake in a legal entity and revenue received) and found the data for 2021 before invasion was started, which allowed us to calculate the value of capital invested in the country (about $194.5 billion), local revenue (about $320.1 billion), local assets (about $343.7 billion) as well as staff (about 1.450 million people) and taxes paid (about $25.6 billion). 1,367 foreign companies have suspended or ceased operations in Russia. Also, we added information about 427 companies that have completed the sale/liquidation of their business in Russia based on the information collected from the official registers (3 business sales and 1 full business liquidation took place in September 2024).

As can be seen from the tables below, as of October 6, 2024, 427 companies which had already completely exited from the Russian Federation, in 2021 had at least 557,200 personnel, $100.8 bn in annual revenue, $49.6bn in capital and $81.1bn in assets; companies, that declared a complete withdrawal from Russia had 227,200 personnel, $48.3bn in revenues, $23.3bn in capital and $48.9bn in assets; companies that suspended operations on the Russian market had 122,100 personnel, annual revenue of $34.3bn, $41.4bn in capital and $102.0bn in assets.

In this digest, we will summarize the results of September 2024 and provide year-to-date statistics on full exits since the beginning of the war.

% of exited is 31% based on revenue allocation, those who are leaving represent 26% of total revenue (with 42% share of suspensions and 58% of withdrawals sub-statuses), % of staying companies represent 43% of revenue based on revenue generated in Russia in 2021. So we observe the situation that % of staying companies is less than % of leaving ones (which means that about 57% (!) of pre-invasion revenue generated by foreigners is leaving or already left Russia).

If we take a look at the same chart based on revenue-2022 distribution – the picture will be a bit different:

% of exited is 28% based on revenue allocation, those who are leaving represent only 17% of total revenue (with 38% share of suspensions and 62% of withdrawals sub-statuses), % of staying companies represent 56% of revenue based on revenue generated in Russia in 2022.

Key conclusion could be the following: on the general background of falling revenue in 2022-2023 companies which made the decision to leave earned less than those who stayed and more companies migrated from the “suspension” sub-status to “withdrawal” showing their increased intention to cut ties with Russia.

Geography is the most important factor that explains companies’ decisions. Companies from “unfriendly countries” (a term coined by the Russian Federation to describe countries that joined the international sanctions policy against the Russian Federation in response to its invasion of Ukraine) are much more likely to exit.

Here are also the breakdowns by countries and by industries of the companies which already exited:

So, as of the end of September 2024, companies from 37 countries and 43 industries have already exited showing their true reaction to the war started by Russia and its not provoked aggression against Ukraine. Most of the companies were headquartered in the USA, Germany, Finland, Great Britain, France and Sweden and operated in the “Automotive”, “Consumer goods and closing”, “Electronics”, “Finance and payments”, “Construction & Architecture” and “Energy, oil and gas” industries.

For a more accurate explanation of the behavior of companies, it is necessary to take into account several factors at the same time. According to our analysis, companies in the technological and communication sector are most prone to exit (as opposed to those who remain in the Russian Federation). Partially due to the fact that they have fewer physical assets in the Russian Federation than in the production sectors. Companies that produce products for the daily consumption of the population in the Russian Federation are less likely to leave (this is one of their key explanations why they do not leave). Pharmaceutical companies that explain their decisions by concern for public health tend to be the “staying” companies.

Companies with larger local revenue and public companies are also inclined to leave the market: presumably, large multinational corporations are more responsible for their reputation and respond to investors’ requests. In addition, it is likely that the exit of the largest multinationals from the Russian Federation is not as painful for them for global business as it is for smaller companies, for which the share of the Russian market can be significant.

Here is the list of “exiters” that we were able to identify recently: Oilon Oy (liquidation) and Rönesans Holding (sale was missed earlier). Also, 2 business sales took place in September 2024: Apleona and IPG Photonics.

Most of these exits were identified before in their preparation phase. Also, we are not in a hurry to assign “exited” status to many companies that are literally on the verge of exit, although they have not yet finalized this process (even though some of them have already been nationalized, partly sold their business or initiated bankruptcy procedures).

Here are just some of them: EOS (German EOS Group may sell its business in Russia to Gazprombank structures. The Russian subsidiary of EOS Group is one of the oldest collection companies in the country. The deal is close to completion and some employees have already announced the new owner), Maersk (Partial liquidation: 16.09.2024: The legal entity MAERSK LLC was liquidated. But MAERSK SOLUTIONS LLC is still operating, although it did not receive revenue in 2023), Nukem Technologies (German company Nukem begins new chapter free from Russian ownership), Purmo Group (Purmo Group, a global leader in indoor climate comfort solutions, has sold its Russian operations, ending all business in Russia. In 2023, Purmo’s Russian business represented nearly 3% of its total net sales), Sotheby’s (The famous auction house Sotheby’s has announced the liquidation of its Russian subsidiary Sotheby’s. This decision was made against the backdrop of sanctions) and Tikkurila (Top managers of Tikkurila’s Russian office have created a structure with the participation of a representative of an investment bank and may be planning to buy out the business of the Finnish parent company). 

The next review of deals for October 2024 will be available in a month.

Over the two years since the full-scale invasion, Russia has lost USD 125 billion in revenue from Western companies, equivalent to about 5.6% of the country’s GDP. These are the results of a study released by experts at KSE Institute as part of the “SelfSanctions / LeaveRussia” project in their analytical note, “What are the financial results of foreign business in Russia in 2023, and have exit rates slowed down?“.

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of foreign companies with assets in Russia has decreased from 1,510 to 1,131. Many companies have sold their assets to local or foreign owners or have liquidated their operations. However, many businesses continue to operate in Russia, facing difficulties in physically exiting or choosing not to leave the market.

The total revenue of foreign companies in Russia fell from $318 billion in 2021 to $193 billion in 2023. Despite the decline in revenue, profits remained almost at the same level—$16.7 billion in 2023 compared to $18.4 billion in 2021, the year before the invasion.

At the same time, the income tax paid by foreign companies in the Russian Federation even increased from $5.4 billion in 2021 to $6.4 billion in 2023. KSE experts attribute this growth to increased tax pressure.

Companies that stayed in Russia (status stay) lost less revenue (from $138.6 billion to $131.9 billion) than those that declared or completed their exit. Their profits significantly increased—from $7.7 billion in 2021 to $11.8 billion in 2023—which may indicate gains from operating in a less competitive environment.

The largest revenue decline was observed in the Consumer Cyclical sector, dropping from $131 billion to $55.9 billion over two years. In contrast, the greatest profit increases were noted in the Financial Services and Consumer Defensive sectors.

Raiffeisen Bank stands out in the financial sector, with its profits in Russia reaching nearly $1 billion in 2023. In the consumer sector, companies like Mondelez and PepsiCo continue active operations and increase their financial indicators. Mondelez increased its revenue from $1 billion to $1.4 billion, with profits rising from $17 million to $62 million. PepsiCo maintained revenue levels above $4 billion, and profits grew from $32 million to $135 million.

Companies from the United States and Germany reduced their revenue in Russia the most, while Chinese companies increased their presence, particularly in the automotive sector. Chinese brands Haval and Chery Automobile are actively replacing Western manufacturers that have left the market, boosting their sales and profits several times over.

Some companies, such as Leroy Merlin, announce their exit from Russia but continue operations through formal asset sales. Investigations indicate that such deals may be purely technical, lacking a real disengagement from the Russian market.

Official sectoral sanctions, particularly on technology exports, also affect the activities of foreign companies in Russia. However, experts note that further business exits are possible only through strengthening such sanctions, as the potential for voluntary self-restrictions has been effectively exhausted.

Experts at KSE Institute conclude that despite the substantial reduction in revenue, many foreign companies continue to earn profits in Russia, thereby financing the budget of the aggressor country. Further exit of foreign businesses from Russia is possible only through the intensification of sectoral sanctions and increased pressure from governments and the international community.

Key findings of the report:

Dynamics of Indicators: The financial indicators of foreign businesses in Russia in 2023, analyzed for the first time in this policy brief, finally allow us to observe revenue and profit dynamics.

Exit of Foreign Companies: Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the number of foreign companies with assets in Russia has decreased from 1,510 to 1,131. Many companies sold their assets to local or foreign owners or liquidated their branches.

Decrease in Revenue: The total revenue of foreign companies in Russia fell from USD 318 billion in 2021 to USD 193 billion in 2023, marking a loss of USD 125 billion over two years.

Stable Profit: Despite falling revenues, profits remained largely unchanged ($18.4 billion in 2021 versus $16.7 billion in 2023).

Profit Tax: At the same time, the profit tax paid by foreign companies in the Russian Federation has even increased from USD 5.4 billion in 2021 to USD 6.4 billion in 2023, attributed to the increased tax pressure.

Strategic Differences: Companies remaining in Russia lost less revenue (from USD 136 billion to USD 129 billion) than those that either declared their intent to exit or completed their exit. At the same time, their profits grew significantly, indicating benefits from a less competitive environment.

Economic Sectors: The largest revenue decline occurred in the consumer cyclical sector, where revenue dropped from USD 131 billion to USD 55.9 billion over two years. However, the highest profits were recorded in consumer cyclical, consumer defensive, and financial services sectors.

Countries of Origin: Companies from the USA and Germany saw the greatest revenue reductions, while Chinese companies increased their presence in the Russian market. Chinese car brands, in particular, are actively replacing Western manufacturers who exited the market.

Opaque Exits: Some companies, such as Leroy Merlin, claim to exit Russia but, in practice, continue operations through formal asset sales, indicating a lack of transparency and possible schemes to evade responsibility.

Impact of Sectoral Sanctions: Official sanctions, particularly on technology exports, also affect the operations of foreign companies in Russia, which should be considered when analyzing their market behavior. 

Please get acquainted with the full version of the analytical note by following the link.

What’s new last month – key news from Daily monitoring

(updated on a monthly basis) ⁷

Recently we made a lot of significant improvements in our Telegram-bot with improving the interface, adding overall statistics and reflecting on the latest KSE statuses of companies taken from the KSE public database.

KSE team has incredible news about the project again! We are not standing still, and in addition to supporting and developing our database, which currently contains the world’s most comprehensive information on the activities of global corporations on the Russian market, we are also developing our technical products. We developed a barcode scanner, which is available at the link https://leaverussia.kse.ua/ (only for mobile devices!) or in our Telegram bot https://t.me/exit_ru_bot! To use the scanner, you need to have a mobile phone, scan the barcode of the product in the store (or anywhere else) with a camera, and you will see information about its manufacturer and whether it also operates in Russia.

Also, thanks to the use of ChatGPT, for most companies in the consumer sector, we have created the most complete list of 7500+ major brands and trademarks, so the search has become even more convenient and better. In addition, the scanner can be saved as a regular app on the smartphone home screen and Eng/Ukr versions are available.

In July 2023, the KSE Institute, jointly with the B4Ukraine coalition partners published a new research entitled “The Business of Staying: a closer look at multinational revenues and taxes in Russia in 2022”, you can download its full text in English using the following links: https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/The-Business-of-Staying-1.pdf and https://b4ukraine.org/pdf/BusinessOfStaying.pdf 

In September 2023, the KSE Institute jointly with the B4Ukraine coalition partners published another research entitled “The Business of Leaving: How Multinationals Can Responsibly Exit Russia”, you can download its full text in English here: https://b4ukraine.org/pdf/B4Ukraine_Business_of_Leaving_report.pdf 

At the end of November 2023, the KSE Institute published a new study entitled “Analysis of foreign business exits from Russia“, which analyzed and systematized the results of 300 exits of foreign companies from the Russian Federation. This paper includes detailed analysis of the largest deals, main buyers/beneficiaries, continuation of trade relations after sales and many other interesting insights. You can download the full text of the study in English here:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4648135 

Also, at the end of February 2024, the KSE Institute jointly with the B4Ukraine coalition partners published the report entitled “2024 Is the Year to Defund Russia’s War – The West Holds the Key” where, among other things, we estimated that the amount of taxes paid by foreign companies operating in Russia in 2022-2023 may amount to $20 billion annually. You can download its full text in English here: https://b4ukraine.org/pdf/b4u_report_2024.pdf

In January 2024, KSE Institute with support of volunteers developed a new application for Apple Store in addition to our database, which currently contains the world’s most comprehensive information on the activities of global corporations on the Russian market.

Leave Russia App allows you to find any international brand or foreign company that is operating and paying taxes in Russia. Additionally, you can find out such statistics (if a company has local entity/ies in Russia): number of staff, revenue generated, amount of capital, assets etc. With our service, you can not only find such a company, but also check proof links with information about the company’s public statement or public news that can confirm this information. Click to download Leave Russia from the App Store!

In September 2024, the KSE Institute published the analytical note entitled “What are the financial results of foreign business in Russia in 2023, and have exit rates slowed down?” where, among other things, we estimated that over the two years since the full-scale invasion, Russia has lost USD 125 billion in revenue from Western companies, equivalent to about 5.6% of the country’s GDP“. You can download its full text in English here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4961551

KSE’s Barcode Scanner (mobile devices only)

KSE’s application in the Apple Store

KSE Telegram bot on news monitoring @exit_ru_bot

Twitter of SelfSanctions project

Leave-russia.org website

BI analytics @ Leave-russia.org

Company news @ Leave-russia.org

Twitter of leave-russia.org website 

LinkedIn of leave-russia.org

YouTube of leave-russia.org

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¹ – KSE status “leave” – Companies that have published on the company’s official website (or their release has appeared in a foreign publication such as FT, NYT, etc.) that are completely shutting down in Russia or companies that have officially announced that they are temporarily reducing operations in Russia
– KSE status “wait” – Companies that have published on the company’s official website (or their release has appeared in a foreign publication such as FT, NYT, etc.) that they are reducing only part of their business operations by continuing to work on other operations or companies that have reported delaying future investment / development / marketing , while continuing their core business On February 24, 2024 KSE status “wait” was merged with status “stay”
– KSE status “stay” – Companies that ignore exit / downsizing requirements in Russia, as well as companies that have officially stated that they remain in Russia or news of their exit have not been found
– KSE status “exited” – Companies that sold its business/assets or its part of the business to a local partner and leaved the market

² In June 2024 KSE Institute reviewed statuses of companies based on new revenue data for 2023, about 100 companies moved from status “stay” to status “leave” due to significant drop of revenue (60%+), usually the same trend took place in 2022 as well

³ When we analyze # of local companies, # of staff and local financials (such as revenue, capital, assets, taxes paid) – KSE Institute uses data according to Russian Accounting Standards (or RAS) from the official EGRUL register, all steps how we do it are explained in detail in the Methodology we published here. The key source for local financials is data from the Federal Tax Service of Russia. The latest available consolidated data for each group’s largest Russian units reported in line with local accounting standards excluding intragroup eliminations and other IFRS or GAAP adjustments. More details are available here.

⁴ On 24 July 2022, we introduced the new status “exited”, which reflects the companies’ actions to finalise the exit from the Russian market. The status relies on data from the Uniform State Register of Legal Entities in Russia (USRLE or EGRUL) and complementary analysis such as companies’ announcements and media publications of company activities. At the same time, companies’ activities can be hard to track and can be missed in the analysis, especially for companies less covered in the media. We encourage our readers to inform us if they are familiar with the companies’ actions that contradict their announcements about the exit via the Feedback Form at https://leave-russia.org/

⁵ Increase in assets vs previous data is explained by adding newly collected information on the bank’s assets which was not available before, as well as the addition of several new companies from the TOP-50 largest foreign companies rating by Forbes Russia.

⁶ It needs to be mentioned that open access to Russia’s EGRUL register was partly classified recently, so KSE Institute could miss some of the exits but we found the new solution allowing us to get the proper access to the registers in the future.

⁷ A “Company news” section is available on the project site https://leave-russia.org/, follow daily updates directly on the website