Description
Kyiv School of Economics invites to research seminar “Forward Guidance and Household Expectations” by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, top young economist of the world.
Abstract. We compare the causal effects of forward guidance communication about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation, mortgage rates, and unemployment to the effects of communication about future inflation in a randomized controlled trial using more than 25,000 U.S. individuals in the Nielsen Homescan panel. We elicit individuals’ expectations and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current and/or future inflation and interest rates. Information treatments about current and next year’s interest rates have a strong effect on household expectations but treatments beyond one year do not have any additional impact on forecasts. Exogenous variation in inflation expectations transmits into other expectations. The richness of our survey allows us to better understand how individuals form expectations about macroeconomic variables jointly and the non-response to long-run forward guidance is consistent with models in which agents have constrained capacity to collect and process information.
About the speaker. Yurii Gorodnichenko is a professor at the Department of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, researcher at NBER and Chairman of KSE International Academic Board.
Yurii is an applied macroeconomist. Most of his research was devoted to monetary policy, fiscal policy, taxation, economic growth, pricing and business cycles topics. Yurii is a member of the boards of many editions, including Review of Economics & Statistics and VoxUkraine. After Yurii has joined UC Berkeley in 2007, he has already published more than 40 articles. His works were published in leading economic journals and were discussed in political discussions and mass media. Yurii received numerous awards for researches and counseling. Among them – Prize named by Michael Woodford for Achievement in the Monetary and Financial Economics of Bank of France and Toulouse School of Economics.
Yurii was born in Ukraine, received an MA at Kyiv School of Economics (formerly EERC) and a PhD degree in the University of Michigan.
Date&Time: May 14, 17:00, online via Zoom https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84595907491.
The event is supported by Swedish government within the project “Economic and Financial Reform Support in Ukraine”.
