The KSE Institute has published its April Ukraine Monthly Economic Update with key indicators for February–March 2026. The data show a widening trade deficit, pressure on the budget, accelerating inflation driven by fuel prices, and a weakening hryvnia. At the same time, the EU approved a €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan this month. The first disbursements are expected in the second quarter. This should ease short-term budget pressure, but the timing of payments is critical—delays could lead to a deficit as early as June.

In February 2026, Ukraine’s trade deficit reached $5.6 billion—74% higher than a year earlier. Imports grew by 29%, primarily due to purchases of machinery and equipment for defense and reconstruction. Exports remained largely unchanged.

In March, budget revenues amounted to UAH 268 billion, exceeding the plan by 6.2%. Expenditures reached UAH 368 billion; however, the government shifted part of defense spending from the end of the year to March—leaving nearly UAH 210 billion fewer resources for the autumn. The formal deficit in March was UAH 100 billion.

The deficit was financed through domestic government bonds (about UAH 25 billion) and IMF funds (UAH 66 billion). The EU’s €90 billion loan support reduces fiscal risks in the coming months, but the timing of incoming assistance is crucial.

Inflation rose to 7.9% in March. Fuel prices were the main driver: A-95 gasoline increased from UAH 56 to 69 per liter, and diesel from UAH 55 to 75, amid Brent crude rising above $110 per barrel. The National Bank of Ukraine kept the policy rate at 15% due to inflation risks and uncertainty.

The hryvnia weakened to UAH 43.8 per dollar. The NBU sold $4.8 billion to smooth volatility, and international reserves declined to $52 billion. Industrial production fell by 2.6% in February. The worst performance was in the energy sector, down 21.2%. At the same time, defense-related industries grew: electrical equipment by 12.8%, machinery by 22.9%, and computers and electronics by 26.1%.