On Wednesday, May 7th, the Kyiv School of Economics hosted a discussion of the 2025 Economic Survey of Ukraine by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This was the first Economic Survey of Ukraine since 2007. During the roundtable, the participants discussed economic sustainability, recovery, and key economic policy priorities. 

The discussion was joined by representatives of the KSE Institute, OECD, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, International Labor Organization, CASE Ukraine, Center for Economic Strategy, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Razumkov Center, DiXi Group, Institute of Analytics and Advocacy, and Business Ombudsman Office.

The event was opened by Vladyslava Grudova, Executive Director of the KSE Institute, and William Tompson, Head of Eurasia Division, OECD Global Relations and Cooperation Directorate.

“The OECD survey will help Ukraine to be more effective in its recovery efforts. It provides a roadmap for changes that will promote economic resilience, attract investment, and accelerate recovery. For the KSE Institute, this analysis is also valuable because it supplements our forecast — in particular, the long-term scenarios that draw on the OECD’s long-term model helps us to prepare development scenarios under different policy and reform conditions and strengthen Ukraine’s economic position,” — Vladyslava Grudova, Executive Director of the KSE Institute.

“Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable economic resilience, but sustaining recovery and unlocking long-term growth will depend on continuing structural reforms — especially improving public finances, attracting investment, and reintegrating labor into the economy,” emphasized William Tompson, Head of Eurasia Division, OECD Global Relations and Cooperation Directorate.

The key findings and recommendations of the OECD were presented by Tim Bulman, Head of Ukraine Desk, OECD Economic Directorate. The presentation was followed by a discussion in the format of three thematic sessions: macroeconomics, labor market, and investment.

The first session focused on macrofiscal challenges. According to the OECD forecast, Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026, after 2.9% in 2024. Inflation is expected to remain high — 13.2% in 2025 — and decline to 7.1% in 2026. Military spending at 25% of GDP is putting significant pressure on public finances: the budget deficit is estimated to reach around 20%, and public debt could rise to 116% of GDP in 2026.

Participants highlighted the importance of fiscal consoldiation once conditions allow. This can be acheved by public finance reform, modernization of the tax system, and increasing the effectiveness of using foreign aid.

The second session focused on labor market issues related to mobilization, emigration and demographic changes. Discussions focused on solutions for reintegrating veterans and internally displaced persons, creating conditions for returning of emigrants, and removing barriers for employment of women.

The third session was dedicated to investment, productivity and exports. It focused on the need to reduce the burden of regulations, strengthening the integrity of the legal system, developing access to finance, and creating conditions for to ensure the recovery is environmentally sustainable and adapts to a changing climate. Analysts pointed out that Ukraine’s economy has significant potential for growth, the realization of which depends on the quality of institutions and policy predictability.

The OECD’s assessments are in line with the conclusions of the April 2025 KSE Institute’s Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook. The survey notes the stabilization of the macroeconomy, achieved through adaptation to the war, consistent government policies, and substantial support from international partners. 

Both forecasts foresee moderate GDP growth in 2025 and a potential acceleration in 2026-2027, if the security situation improves and reforms continue.

KSE is grateful to the OECD team for their partnership and trust. We appreciate the opportunity to work together on solutions that contribute to Ukraine’s economic recovery, strengthen reforms, and enhance international support.

The key findings and charts are available in the OECD Economic Summary of Ukraine — view.

The KSE Macroeconomic Forecast for 2025-2027 is available in the Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook — go to the overview.