In July 2025, Russia’s oil export revenues increased by $0.9 billion to $14.3 billion compared to June, according to the August edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. The growth was driven by higher oil prices and an additional day in July. Revenues from crude oil rose by $0.46 billion to $8.94 billion due to higher prices with stable volumes, while revenues from oil products increased by $0.47 billion to $5.39 billion, supported by higher prices and a slight volume uptick.

Seaborne crude oil exports rose by 2.2% compared to June, with oil product shipments increasing by 1.6%. Tankers with International Group (IG) P&I insurance coverage carried 27% of crude oil and 75% of oil products.

According to the KSE Institute, in July, 145 Russian shadow fleet tankers transporting crude oil and oil products departed from Russian ports and were involved in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, with 91% of them being over 15 years old.

India remained the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil, purchasing 1,689 kb/d (50% of total seaborne exports). Turkey continued to lead in oil product imports, with a volume of 508 kb/d. 

Although India’s total oil imports from Russia fell to 1,800 kb/d in August (from over 2,000 kb/d in March-June), Russian crude still accounted for 38% of India’s crude imports and oil products for 68%. Volumes remained in line with January-February levels, and the import structure provides no evidence that India is seeking alternatives to Russian oil despite increasing U.S. pressure.

The EU, US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand imposed sanctions on 535 Russian oil tankers; however, the month-on-month increase in the number of tankers violating these sanctions highlights the need to strengthen compliance enforcement.

In June-July 2025, Urals traded close to the G7/EU price cap, while ESPO significantly exceeded it due to rising global oil prices. Premium oil products continued to trade well below the price cap due to its inflated level, whereas discounted products traded above the cap for the second consecutive month.

According to the KSE Institute, under current price caps and the status quo of sanctions, Russia’s oil revenues are projected to reach $154 billion in 2025 and $125 billion in 2026. Should discounts on Urals and ESPO widen to $40/barrel and $30/barrel, revenues could drop to $134 billion in 2025 and $46 billion in 2026. However, with weak sanctions enforcement, revenues could rise to $160 billion and $146 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Overall, Russia’s oil export losses stemmed from the full-scale invasion are estimated at $157 billion in March 2022-July 2025.