Experts from KSE Institute, including Elina Ribakova and Anna Vlasyuk, together with representatives from CEPA, Volodymyr Dubovyk and Sam Greene, presented the joint report “Resilience, Reconstruction, Recovery: The Path Ahead for Ukraine” at  ‘Ukraine: The Path Ahead” event.

The discussion focused on understanding the economic, political and security elements of Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery. It is important to understand that reconstruction efforts in Ukraine must begin immediately, not after the end of the war. The estimated $1 trillion cost of reconstruction won’t cover all the necessary expenses. Restoring sovereignty, territorial integrity, security and prosperity to citizens will require trillions of dollars more. To date, Western governments, intergovernmental organizations and international financial institutions have committed just under $80 billion to Ukraine’s post-war recovery. This is only a fraction of what is needed. The issue of financing Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery is therefore urgent and pressing. 

“The confiscation of Russian reserves is crucial for supporting Ukraine’s financing, signaling to the aggressor that violating international law will not go unpunished. It is important to remember that countermeasures are a well-established principle in public international law, and sovereign immunity is a procedural concept applicable exclusively in litigation and not beyond. With the Russian veto blocking the UN Security Council, countermeasures are vital in political deadlocks. So, this mechanism is precisely designed for situations like the one caused by Russian aggression,” said research fellow at KSE Institute Anna Vlasyuk.

To address this issue, CEPA and the Kyiv School of Economics outlined four key pillars for Ukraine’s recovery: economics and finance, Ukrainian reforms, Western political will, and postwar security. Each pillar is crucial for stability and must be addressed simultaneously.

From this perspective, there are four reconstruction tasks: Maximizing wartime resilience; Investing in Ukraine’s future economy and infrastructure; Preparing for integration into the EU; Strengthening Ukraine’s state and deterring future Russian attacks. These tasks should be addressed in three phases: Wartime Resilience, Rapid Rebuilding, and Durable Development.

The paper starts by looking at the economic scale of reconstruction and the available financial resources. It then analyzes political challenges faced by both Ukraine and the West. The importance of ensuring Ukrainian security is discussed separately. Finally, the paper suggests a step-by-step plan for reconstruction and recovery, outlining tasks for Ukraine and its Western allies in each of the three phases.

Key recommendations of this report include financial support from the West for Ukraine, investment, post-war recovery planning, engagement of civil society, strengthening Ukraine’s defense-industrial base, increase in the state’s administrative capacity, strengthening democracy in Ukraine, EU political will towards Ukrainian integration into the EU, alignment of U.S. national interests with support for Ukraine, and providing short-term military assistance to Ukraine.

“In addition to the report’s recommendations, it’s crucial to prioritize critical reforms like public administration and anti-corruption to enhance Ukraine’s administrative capacity that will attract more investments. Even currently Ukraine’s institutional quality surpasses many post-war countries, offering significant advantages. This underscores Ukraine’s promising prospects and signals to Europe its importance for the future, especially in areas like the green transition, natural resources, and military technology,” said vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics Elina Ribakova.