On Wednesday, March 19, Professor James Robinson, the 2024 Nobel laureate in Economics, delivered a lecture in Kyiv. During his speech, he discussed the role of institutions in shaping the economic well-being of nations and shared his views on the future of the United States, Ukraine, and the world amid current challenges.

Professor Robinson’s visit to Ukraine was supported by the Kyiv School of Economics and ICU Investment Group. His public lecture, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, attracted a diverse audience of economists, politicians, and business leaders.

During the lecture, Robinson offered a critical assessment of Donald Trump’s administration, arguing that its policies run counter to the principles that have driven US economic growth over the past century.

“The Trump administration’s approach — characterized by tariffs, border closures, and interference with institutions — will have devastating consequences for US economic development. It undermines the very foundations that have enabled Western democracies to thrive economically for the past 100 years. But it’s important to recognize that Donald Trump is not the root cause of the problem — he is merely a symptom,” Robinson stated.

In his view, the free market alone does not create an egalitarian society; rather, it exacerbates the inequalities currently seen in the United States.

“Today, Trump is constructing a power structure that mirrors the models of China or Russia, appointing individuals to key positions based on personal loyalty rather than competence. This is a textbook example of extractive institutions — ones that erode trust in governance and concentrate economic control in the hands of a narrow elite,” he explained.

Robinson argued that this trend is part of a broader transformation of the American political system, which is increasingly shifting toward an oligarchic model.

“When loyalty outweighs professional qualifications, public institutions weaken. In critical moments, when tough but necessary decisions must be made, the system proves unprepared — lacking both the expertise and the knowledge to act,” he warned.

Drawing parallels to the 1930s, Robinson noted that today’s global landscape resembles a time when democratic states faced growing challenges from authoritarian regimes. He cautioned that Trump’s rollback of liberal values threatens US economic leadership, particularly amid rising competition from China.

“Trump’s flirtation with right-wing ideologies echoes the policies of fascist regimes in Italy and Germany. On one side, we see China — a model reminiscent of Soviet Bolshevism. On the other, the liberal democracies of the West. Yet, there has been no equivalent to Sweden’s 1930s socialist model, which later proved highly successful. We must seek new ways to understand the world and our place within it,” the economist observed.

James Robinson is one of the most influential contemporary economists and political scientists. He is the co-author of the global bestsellers Why Nations Fail and The Narrow Corridor, which explore why some nations prosper while others decline, emphasizing the role of economic institutions, governance, and political leadership.

In 2024, Robinson, along with Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson, was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for his research on the long-term impact of institutions on national economic prosperity.