KSE Institute has released a new policy note, “Options to Complete the European Ban on Russian Fossil Fuels.” The note assesses progress in phasing out Europe’s reliance on Russian energy, identifies key challenges, and outlines policy options to complete the ban. It provides recommendations to strengthen Europe’s energy security, close loopholes, and cut Russia’s fossil fuel revenues used to fund its war.

In 2022, the EU set a goal to end Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027 in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Significant progress has been made—Europe has stopped purchasing Russian coal and most oil. However, Hungary and Slovakia continue to import Russian crude via the southern Druzhba pipeline. Replacing these flows is feasible, as an existing pipeline from Croatia to Hungary has enough capacity to meet demand.

Meanwhile, gas remains a major challenge. Russia remains a key gas supplier to the EU despite an overall decline in imports. In 2024, total EU gas imports fell by 18.4 bcm, while Russian supplies increased by 9.5 bcm (+21% YoY), generating $21.7 billion in revenue for the Kremlin. Russia’s share of EU gas imports rose to 18.2% (+4% YoY), making it the second-largest supplier, surpassing the U.S.. In 2025, pipeline exports will drop as Ukraine halts transit, leaving Hungary as the only EU country still importing Russian pipeline gas. However, Russia may compensate for these losses by increasing LNG exports to Europe.

Despite progress, two key challenges remain in fully implementing the RepowerEU ban on Russian fossil fuels:

First, gas prices remain nearly twice as high as pre-war levels. Many EU governments are awaiting new LNG supplies from the U.S. and Canada in 2025, including Plaquemines, Corpus Christi III, and LNG Canada, to stabilize markets and reduce prices. These projects will provide twice the volume of gas that Russia currently exports to Europe. 

The EU has already agreed to ban the transshipment of Russian LNG from March 2025. As the next step, we recommend banning LNG imports from Gazprom’s Portovaya and Vystotsk plants, which were sanctioned by the U.S., and phasing out Yamal LNG by late Q3 2025, when alternative supplies become available.

Second, Hungary and Slovakia continue to buy discounted Russian oil and gas, undermining EU sanctions and gaining an unfair economic advantage. Their purchases finance Russia’s war and pose a principal threat to European security. Stronger measures are needed to close this loophole and ensure the full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels.

Policy options to complete the European ban on Russian fossil fuels:

• EU trade measures – The European Commission could impose tariffs on Russian oil and gas, similar to those introduced on Russian grain in 2024. Hungary and Slovakia cannot veto this decision.

• EU competition policy – The EU could restrict Russian gas flows via TurkStream by applying the same rules used to reduce Gazprom’s control over Nord Stream II.

• EU sanctions – Sanctioning Russian banks and energy companies would further reduce fossil fuel revenues, but requires unanimous EU approval.

• US sanctions – The US could replace Russian gas in Europe with US LNG, accelerating the transition while sanctioning Russian oil and gas companies.

A full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels is essential to cutting Kremlin war revenues and ensuring Europe’s energy security. The EU and its allies must take decisive steps to close loopholes and accelerate the transition away from Russian energy.