Experts of the Advisory Council on Economic Policy to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, together with VoxUkraine think tank, published the study “Economic growth for post-war Ukraine”, which is a forecast of the macroeconomic model of Ukraine’s development in the context of post-war recovery and growth, as well as Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

Two key forces will likely shape Ukraine’s post-war economic trajectory. First, fixing the damages inflicted by the Russian invasion will stimulate economic growth. Second, integration of Ukraine into the European Union (EU) will spur investment and technological transfer, similar to the boost in Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and other Eastern European (EE) countries that joined the European Union in the 2000s.

According to the experts, Ukraine will grow fast after the war. However, there is large variation in the potential growth speed, and it is important to have realistic expectations about economic growth. Clearly, foreign aid to rebuild capital can help Ukraine grow faster, but the main engine of growth is elsewhere. 

Return of refugees, high domestic investment rates, intensive technological transfer, reduced corruption, etc. will determine the long-run growth. Moreover, investments from Ukraine’s strategic partners, as well as macro-financial support, will play an important role in post-war growth.

Growth miracle, similar to some countries in Europe after World War II (Germany, France, Italy), and some Central and Eastern European countries in the 1990s can happen in Ukraine, but it is not destiny. It depends on policies chosen by Ukraine.

The full text of the study “Economic growth in post-war Ukraine” is at https://voxukraine.org/ekonomichne-zrostannya-u-povoyennij-ukrayini

The Advisory Council, headed by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, professor of the Department of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and  including Tymofiy Mylovanov, the President of the Kyiv School of Economics is involved in developing recommendations for the architecture of Ukraine’s recovery, including fiscal and monetary policy, the labour market, and regulatory policy.