KSE Institute has released a new report, “Disassembling the Russian War Machine: Key Players and Nodes.” It examines Russia’s military production capabilities, key players, critical geographical clusters, and the role of China. This publication is part of a series analyzing Russia’s military-industrial complex.

Section I examines the recent evolution of Russia’s military-industrial complex (MIC) and its ability to meet battlefield demands. Section II analyzes the key entities that sustain Russia’s war machine. Section III adds a geographical perspective, identifying major military industry clusters. Finally, Section IV explores China’s role in supporting the Russian MIC.

Russia’s Military Industry and Capacity. Russia’s MIC has transformed over the past 20 years following its post-Soviet collapse, but still faces modernization challenges. Despite consolidation under large, vertically integrated conglomerates like Rostec, redundancies and inefficiencies remain. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, military spending has surged, with funding coming from the federal budget, regional budgets, bank loans, and arrears to the state. However, sanctions, labor shortages, rising costs, and collapsing arms exports are straining the sector. To sustain the war effort, Russia is refurbishing old equipment, ramping up domestic production, and securing limited imports. Cooperation with North Korea and Iran has become critical, particularly for artillery shells and military technology.

Key Players in Russia’s MIC. A new bottom-up analysis of Russia’s military-industrial complex reveals a highly concentrated and state-controlled sector based on a database of over 5.5 thousand  companies, including a demand side, with over 800 active army entities and bases, and a supply side comprised of military industry companies. The top ten corporate MIC groups, all closely linked to the government, hold 52% of total assets, reinforcing the dominance of legacy firms. Of the 4,322 active MIC companies, 54%—controlling 76% of assets—were registered before 2010. Many firms are expanding production to sustain Russia’s war against Ukraine, with KTRV and Almaz-Antey supplying weapons, while Roscosmos and Rosatom develop nuclear and conventional military systems. Despite three years of full-scale invasion, many MIC enterprises remain unsanctioned. While procurement data stays opaque, several illustrative procurement cases point to capacity expansion.

Key Nodes of Russia’s Military Industry. A new analysis identifies 113 key military industry clusters that drive 82% of cargo traffic and 92% of procurement contracts, highlighting the sector’s reliance on integrated supply chains. The study examines these clusters across multiple dimensions: sectoral, legal, geospatial, and product, with data points on financials, supplier contracts, and cargo flows integrated into one dynamic dataset. A product-based analysis covers 264 entities across 26 categories, revealing links between  manufacturing, research, and component production. Cargo flow analysis refines the findings, revealing supply chain dependencies and restructuring while tracking material shipments. This highlights how logistics and procurement strategies adapt to align with military priorities.

The China Connection: Links and Dependencies. China remains a key enabler of Russia’s military-industrial complex, providing high-tech electronics and industrial tools despite Western sanctions. Since 2022, bilateral trade has surged, with Russia’s imports from China reaching $115 billion in 2024—72% higher than pre-war levels. In 2023, China and Hong Kong accounted for 76% of battlefield-related deliveries to Russia, while 90% of all restricted high-tech imports were facilitated through China. These supplies reach Russia in three ways: through direct Chinese substitutes for Western goods, production by Western companies in China, and transshipment via Chinese intermediaries. This partnership remains vital for Russia’s ability to sustain and develop its military capabilities despite ongoing sanctions. In a number of key component categories, China now operates as a near-exclusive supplier for the Russian market.

Easing sanctions would give Russia’s war machine a much needed reprieve at a time when its structural pressures intensify, resulting in a threat to European security and global stability. It is crucial to maintain pressure, exposing the weaknesses of its MIC, which already suffers from inefficiency, corruption, and lack of modernization.