The KSE Institute overview covers dynamics in strategic sectors, particularly industry, agriculture and energy, the state of the labour market, key risks and prospects for the economy, as well as data on inflation, exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy.

The main factors driving changes in the macroeconomic situation in November were missile strikes on the energy sector and international support. Partial adaptation of businesses and new sources of financing increase the chances that the economy will remain stable throughout 2026. However, weakening investment and labour market shortages are limiting business activity. This, in turn, reduces the amount of potential tax revenues to the state budget and highlights the need for sustained external financial and military support.

Notably, businesses have partially adapted to energy and logistical constraints, and the most pessimistic scenario of production decline has not been realised. Consequently, a deeper industrial decline has been avoided. However, security and infrastructure conditions have deteriorated compared to October 2024. Large-scale attacks damaged gas production and energy facilities, caused power shortages, and reduced mineral extraction and electricity production.

The disruptions caused by the attacks, combined with tighter financing and basic macroeconomic effects, led to a decline or very limited growth in most sectors of the economy. Even the construction sector, traditionally a key driver, contracted by 9.7% year-on-year. This situation is radically different from the figures for June-September 2025. At that time, reconstruction projects and increased government investment contributed to monthly growth in construction of 20-40%. The largest decline (–21.4% year-on-year) occurred in the civil engineering sector. In addition to slowing down overall activity, this indicates a pause or postponement of major infrastructure projects. Other construction-related sectors are growing, but have lost steam compared to previous months.

In addition to restrictions in energy and logistics and high costs, economic activity is constrained by weak private investment and labour shortages. Signs of weakening investment and recovery momentum were already evident in October 2025. At the same time, the number of skilled workers available to businesses in the labour market is declining.

According to the National Bank of Ukraine’s monthly business survey, employment indices fell below 50 points in most key sectors in November: industry (47.1), construction (47.2) and services (49.3). According to job search websites, the greatest shortage of employees is felt by companies in the logistics and delivery sector (18–22% of offers), trade (15–18%) and medicine (12–15%). Meanwhile, the employment rate rose to 55.9%, and the number of officially registered unemployed fell to ~215,000. The reduction in the labour pool is forcing employers to exert more effort and increase wages to retain staff.

Read more in the KSE Institute’s Ukraine Monthly Economic Update for November 2025