KSE Institute has published a new issue of the Ukraine Risk Matrix – a quarterly assessment of key risks facing Ukraine’s economy and resilience amid the full-scale war.

Ukraine’s near-term risk landscape deteriorated in Q3 2026 as intensified Russian attacks increasingly affected the productive economy. Disruption to energy and gas production, ports, railways, businesses, and other infrastructure is constraining output, exports, investment, and logistics while adding to inflationary and fiscal pressures. Maritime exports have come under particularly severe pressure, while renewed attacks on energy infrastructure are increasing vulnerabilities ahead of winter. 

Geopolitical Risks & War remains the highest-rated risk at 4.0 out of 5, followed by Economic Activity and Critical Infrastructure at 3.6. The assessment deteriorated during the quarter for Economic Activity, Critical Infrastructure, Inflation & Monetary Stability, and Political Stability, while none of the twelve key risks improved. This broad-based deterioration reflects both the growing economic effects of the war and mounting pressures in several areas of domestic stability. 

Despite the deterioration in the real economy and infrastructure, Ukraine’s macro-financial position remains comparatively resilient. Substantial external support, large international reserves, and a well-capitalized and liquid banking system continue to provide important buffers. Ukraine Support Loan disbursements have strengthened the near-term fiscal and external financing position, but vulnerabilities increase beyond 2026 as financing needs exceed already committed resources. The widening trade deficit and persistent delays in meeting reform commitments heighten external pressures and poserisks to future disbursements. 

Over the longer term, the nature of Ukraine’s risks is expected to shift as security conditions improve. Infrastructure and logistics constraints should ease, while reconstruction and stronger investment can gradually rebuild productive capacity. However, labor shortages are likely to remain a major constraint, and large financing needs will persist even after active hostilities end. Sustained recovery will increasingly depend on mobilizing private and external capital, raising productivity through investment and technology adoption, and strengthening institutional and implementation capacity. 

The report covers 12 key risks across four areas – real economy, macro-financial stability, external stability, and domestic stability. In the new issue, these are based on assessments of 47 individual subrisks. Each subrisk is evaluated separately over the short and long term, taking into account both the likelihood of materialization and the potential impact. The resulting overall risk ratings range from 0 to 5.