KSE Institute has published “The Role of the Russian Flag in Shadow Fleet Operations” – an analysis of how Russia is increasingly registering sanctioned tankers under its own flag.

From  2022 through the end of 2024, Russia maintained some distance from the vessels it relied upon to evade sanctions, flying flags of convenience and later moving to shadier jurisdictions, including active use of false flags.  The situation is now changing. In the first quarter of 2026, Russian-flagged vessels reached 19.5% of shadow fleet shipments – compared to an average of 4.2% in Q3 2023-2024. 

Two factors are likely behind this shift: flag registries in third countries have come under increasing diplomatic pressure to sever ties with sanctioned tankers, and stepped-up interdiction of vessels without valid flags has made the Russian flag the primary remaining alternative.

Key findings:

The share of Russian-flagged vessels has risen sharply in recent quarters. Throughout 2022-2024, it remained broadly stable at 2-3% of total Russian seaborne oil exports. It increased to 6.8% in Q4 2025, and further rose to 11.2% in Q1 2026 – or 56.5 million barrels, nearly four times the level recorded a year earlier. Within the shadow fleet, the dynamic is even more pronounced: from 4.3% at the end of 2024 to 19.5% in Q1 2026.

In Q1 2026, 82 tankers were operating under the Russian flag – accounting for 11.7% of all vessels involved in Russia’s seaborne oil exports and 23.7% of all shadow fleet vessels. The composition of the fleet has also shifted: while small Handysize tankers once dominated Russian-flagged operations, accounting for 95% of unique tankers in mid-2022, their share has fallen to 51%. Aframax tankers have grown from 5-6 tankers per quarter in 2023 to 29 in early 2026, and Suezmax from near zero to 11.

Most of these vessels were reflagged to Russia following an extensive history of flag changes. Of the 82 tankers, only 17 had been sailing under the Russian flag since before 2022. Among the remaining vessels, reflagging has been extensive: 14 tankers changed their flag three times, eight changed it six times, another eight changed it seven times, and one as many as nine times – pointing to a systematic pattern of flag-hopping that ultimately led to adoption of the Russian flag. Previous registrations include both legitimate flags such as Gabon, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Cameroon, as well as false ones. In total, 22% of vessels previously operated under false flags – most commonly Gambia, Comoros, and Benin – while 16% had an unknown flag.

A sanctions analysis of the 82 Russian-flagged tankers reveals a high degree of designation across major Western jurisdictions – 87% were sanctioned by at least one jurisdiction but remained active in Q1 2026. Canada and the EU have designated the largest number of vessels – 87% and 86% respectively – followed by the UK (84%) and the US (60%). 68 vessels are designated by both the EU and the UK, and 47 by the EU, the UK, and the US. Only 13% of tankers carry no designation from any of the jurisdictions reviewed.

The ship management of Russian-flagged tankers is dominated by entities linked to Sovcomflot. Following Sovcomflot’s designation by OFAC in February 2024, its fleet was formally transferred to various new management structures. South Fleet Ltd, Invest Fleet Ltd, North Fleet Ltd, SCF TM Ltd, and New Fleet Ltd, all registered in Russia, as well as UAE-based Nova Shipmanagement, were identified as operators of Russian-flagged and Sovcomflot-linked tankers. Together, these six entities transported 34.5 million barrels in early 2026 – 61% of total volumes carried under the Russian flag – indicating that a significant share of this fleet remains operationally connected to Russia’s sanctioned state shipping company. The third largest manager by volume is Idas LLC, a formally independent Russian-registered entity that began operations in the same quarter; its fleet is entirely composed of tankers previously managed by sanctioned companies.

P&I insurance could only be identified for 30 of the 81 shadow fleet vessels operating under the Russian flag, and is provided exclusively by Russian companies. The main insurer is Sogaz Insurance, covering 18 vessels, followed by AlfaStrakhovanie with 10.

The analysis covers 82 tankers that conducted international export voyages under the Russian flag in Q1 2026, drawing on data from Equasis, Kpler, and sanctions registries. 81 of these vessels meet KSE Institute’s shadow fleet criteria – the sole exception is a tanker holding P&I insurance through the American Club.