KSE Institute has published an initial assessment of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure. The analysis covers attacks on the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in late March 2026, while the latest attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in early April 2026 are not yet included in the assessment due to the limited time passed.

The strikes are taking place at a time when global energy prices have soared due to the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — providing Russia with urgently needed fiscal relief after several months of mounting pressure. 

Key findings:

KSE Institute estimates that Russian oil export earnings were reduced by approximately $1.76 billion over two weeks from March 23 to April 5, 2026 vs. a hypothetical no-attack baseline — $923 million in the first week and $839 million in the second.

The ports targeted by Ukrainian strikes account for approximately 59% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports: Primorsk — 22%, Ust-Luga — 20%, Novorossiysk — 17%.

Activity at the ports:

• Primorsk has partially recovered: oil product volumes dropped from 446 kb/d prior to the attacks to 181 kb/d, but have since rebounded to 381 kb/d. The number of loaded tanker departures fell from 20–23 per week prior to the attacks to 11, before rising back to 17.

• Ust-Luga has effectively come to a standstill: crude oil volumes dropped from 725 kb/d to 101–155 kb/d, while oil product volumes fell to near zero (25 kb/d). Loaded tanker departures dropped from 16–17 per week before the attacks to just 2 in the week of March 30–April 5.

The higher global oil prices are, the more costly it is for Russia to lose each barrel it cannot export through damaged terminals. For the strikes to risk economically backfiring, prices would need to fall significantly.

A further risk for Russia is the potential for longer-term disruptions to production. Because Russia lacks significant storage capacity, a shutdown of export terminals could necessitate curtailing output at aging reservoirs,which would be slow and technically complex to restart.

Ukrainian strikes have had no discernible impact on global prices — the effect of reduced Russian supply is overshadowed by the scale of the market disruption caused by the Iran war, which has removed around 15 mb/d from global circulation.

For methodological details, see the full assessment. This assessment is based on preliminary numbers for vessel movements, which are often subject to subsequent data revisions by the source. The data used for this report was accessed on April 7, 2026.