KSE Institute published its May Ukraine Monthly Economic Update featuring key indicators for March–April 2026. Ukraine’s trade deficit in the first quarter of 2026 was $5.3 billion, or 52% higher than a year earlier. Exports in March remained nearly unchanged at $9.6 billion, while imports increased by 28%. The sharpest rises were recorded in fuel and mineral raw materials (+61%, or $1.6 billion) and machinery and equipment (+38%, or $2.5 billion).

International reserves fell to $48.2 billion in April, down $6.1 billion during the first quarter and by an additional $3.8 billion in April. This was driven by efforts to support the exchange rate amid an almost complete absence of external financing. The hryvnia stabilized at UAH 43.8 per US dollar.

In April, the budget deficit amounted to UAH 132 billion — 2.2 times higher than planned. Revenues reached only 81.7% of the target, as the National Bank of Ukraine transferred only the first portion of its annual profit to the budget. Expenditures totaled UAH 435 billion, exceeding the plan for the second consecutive month. Domestic borrowing brought in UAH 26 billion, while external financing amounted to only UAH 2 billion from the World Bank.

Inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. The main driver was fuel prices (+36.1%) due to the impact of the Iran–Israel war on the oil market. A-95 gasoline prices increased from UAH 69.4 to 72.7 per liter, while diesel rose from UAH 74.8 to 89.1 per liter. This pushed up transportation costs (+19.1%) as well as food prices dependent on energy and fuel. Producer prices increased by 40.2%. The NBU kept the key policy rate unchanged at 15%, but raised its annual inflation forecast from 7.5% to 9.4%, sending a cautious signal about a possible response should the inflation environment deteriorate further.

In March, industrial production grew by 4.5% after five months of decline. Freight transportation returned to positive growth for the first time since June 2025, driven by railway transport. The average salary rose to $659, although the labor market continues to face a shortage of qualified personnel. The key risk to macroeconomic stability remains Ukraine’s dependence on timely external financing, particularly the EU’s proposed €90 billion loan.