The Centre for Food and Land Use Research at the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE Agrocenter) has published its analytical review of Ukraine’s agricultural land market for Q3 2026. According to the report, the number of land sale transactions declined, while prices continued to rise. At the same time, the widening gap between market prices and the normative monetary valuation (NMV) of land points to potential additional tax revenues from transactions in which the reported land value is at or close to NMV.
In Q3 2026, approximately 22,400 agricultural land sale transactions were concluded in Ukraine, covering a total area of 43,700 hectares. Compared with the previous quarter, the number of transactions fell by 14%, while the area sold declined by 18%. Compared with Q3 2025, these figures decreased by 7% and 15%, respectively.
Market activity declined for five consecutive months. In August, the area of land sold fell to 12,700 hectares, the lowest level since December 2024, excluding seasonal January declines. In September, it recovered to 14,900 hectares but remained below the level recorded a year earlier. The researchers attribute the slowdown in part to growing difficulties with maritime exports of Ukrainian agricultural products due to Russian attacks on port infrastructure and threats to shipping. These disruptions reduce farmers’ incomes and discourage investment, including in agricultural land.
Despite lower sales volumes, land prices continued to rise. The average price per hectare for transactions concluded in 2026 increased from UAH 101,200, based on data as of May, to UAH 105,800 in the updated data, a rise of 4.6%. In September, the average price reached UAH 125,600 per hectare, while the weighted average stood at UAH 82,000 per hectare. The gap between these indicators widened to UAH 43,600 per hectare, compared with approximately UAH 17,000 in September 2024, indicating a growing share of smaller but more expensive plots in the total number of transactions.
Regional differences remain substantial. In Q3, the highest average agricultural land prices were recorded in Ivano-Frankivsk (UAH 297,100/ha) and Lviv (UAH 292,200/ha) oblasts. The lowest prices were observed in Donetsk (UAH 38,700/ha), Mykolaiv (UAH 47,500/ha), and Kherson (UAH 48,300/ha) oblasts. The difference between regions with the most and least expensive land was more than sevenfold.
In terms of land area sold during the first nine months of 2026, Poltava (14,800 ha), Vinnytsia (13,100 ha), Chernihiv (11,200 ha), and Zhytomyr (10,700 ha) oblasts led the market. Together, they accounted for 35% of all land sold during this period.
Land designated for commercial agricultural production accounts for the largest share of the market. In Q3 2026, this category represented 55.4% of all transactions and 75% of the total area sold. Meanwhile, the share of land designated for personal peasant farming declined to 39.8% of transactions and 19.4% of the area sold. The market is therefore becoming increasingly concentrated in land used for commercial agricultural production.
The researchers also examined the normative monetary valuation (NMV), which is used to calculate land taxes and determine the minimum sale price of agricultural land. NMV is falling increasingly behind market values. At the launch of the land market in 2021, sale prices were 1.45 times NMV. By Q3 2026, this ratio had risen to 1.74. More than half of the increase in this ratio over the past five years occurred during the first three quarters of 2026.
According to the authors, the slow adjustment of NMV results in lost tax revenues from land transactions and land use. An undervalued NMV creates incentives to officially register transactions at the normative valuation to reduce income taxes on land sales.
In the state and communal land lease market, approximately 13,400 hectares were leased through Prozorro.Sale auctions in Q3 2026. Odesa oblast accounted for more than a quarter of this area. In September, the average rental rate stood at UAH 10,700 per hectare, or approximately $239/ha.
Competition at land auctions remains strong. Over the entire period covered by the land lease market data, auctions attracted an average of 3.13 bids each, with final rental prices approximately four times the starting prices. However, the area leased declined compared with Q3 2025, when more than 31,000 hectares were leased through auctions.
