In September 2026, the general fund of the state budget received UAH 195.9 billion — UAH 245.9 billion, or 2.3 times less than planned. About 93% of this shortfall, or UAH 229.5 billion, is linked to the crediting of EU assistance under the Ukraine Support Loan program. The received €3.3 billion was credited to the special fund, although it had been planned for the general fund. General fund expenditures amounted to UAH 300 billion, and its deficit, according to analysts’ preliminary estimate, was about UAH 103.6 billion.
This is according to the September issue of the Budget Barometer, prepared by the team of the Center for Public Finance and Governance Analysis at KSE Institute.
The September plan was not met for most major taxes. Import VAT brought in UAH 57.2 billion — UAH 11.8 billion less than planned due to a decline in taxable imports. Excise tax provided UAH 24 billion (UAH 7.5 billion less), personal income tax — UAH 20.3 billion (UAH 1.4 billion less), corporate income tax — UAH 4.3 billion, and rent payment — UAH 3.4 billion. In contrast, net domestic VAT revenues exceeded the plan by 7.9%, reaching UAH 36.9 billion. However, this was due to a reduction in VAT refunds to businesses, down to UAH 9.9 billion from UAH 21.6 billion in August. Gross VAT revenues, meanwhile, declined.
In September, the Ministry of Finance increased the general fund spending plan by UAH 30 billion, to UAH 339.7 billion. Actual expenditures totaled UAH 300 billion, 11.7% below the updated plan and significantly lower than the January–August monthly average of UAH 371.5 billion. The largest allocations were for defense and security: UAH 115.1 billion for the Ministry of Defense and UAH 52.5 billion for the Ministry of Internal Affairs. UAH 36.3 billion was planned for social policy, of which UAH 21.5 billion was for pensions and supplementary payments. Another UAH 20.5 billion was allocated for healthcare, including UAH 16.5 billion for the Medical Guarantee Program, while UAH 25.5 billion was earmarked for servicing public debt.
The funding shortfall is also evident in plans for the end of the year. October envisages UAH 270.4 billion in general fund spending, and November — UAH 275.3 billion, compared with the January–August monthly average of UAH 371.5 billion. For the Ministry of Defense, the October plan is 68.5% below this level, and the November plan is 73.4% lower. In late September, the government announced that starting in October it would temporarily restrict funding for lower-priority spending in the event of a shortfall. Priority will be given to defense, pensions, salaries, social assistance, and public debt servicing. At the same time, spending on new construction, reconstruction, and capital repairs may be postponed.
In September, the state raised UAH 72.5 billion in loans — 2.1 times less than planned. Of this, UAH 42.4 billion came from external creditors, and another UAH 30.1 billion through domestic borrowing. At the same time, UAH 72.8 billion was spent on public debt repayment and servicing — UAH 335 million more than was raised. In addition, the general fund of the budget received UAH 34.5 billion in grant assistance through the World Bank. Ukraine also met ten indicators under the Ukraine Plan, enabling the Council of the EU to approve the eighth regular payment under the Ukraine Facility program. The funds, amounting to €2.9 billion, arrived in early October. To reduce the debt burden, the Ministry of Finance exchanged government bonds worth UAH 11.5 billion, bringing the total since the start of the year to UAH 106.3 billion. Citizens’ investments in government bonds reached a record UAH 167.8 billion — 63.7% more than a year earlier.
Local budget revenues excluding transfers rose 25.6% year-on-year in September, reaching UAH 44.7 billion — significantly outpacing inflation, which stood at 10%. Personal income tax was the largest contributor, bringing in UAH 30.9 billion, or 69.1% of own revenues. Land fees provided UAH 4.4 billion, excise tax — UAH 3.3 billion, and the single tax — UAH 3.2 billion. Transfers from the state budget rose 3.6 times, including a 69.8% increase in the education subvention following a raise in teachers’ salaries. UAH 1.4 billion was allocated as additional support for local budgets affected by Russian aggression.
Unified social contribution revenues rose 20.6% in September, reaching UAH 67.2 billion. Pension Fund revenues totaled UAH 100.9 billion (+16.6% year-on-year), while expenditures reached UAH 89.9 billion (+11.2%). Of this, UAH 74.2 billion went toward pensions, and another UAH 10.8 billion toward social payments. Unemployment Insurance Fund revenues totaled UAH 1.87 billion, with expenditures of UAH 1.23 billion. As of early October, 92,400 registered unemployed individuals were using State Employment Service services — 0.4% fewer than a year earlier.
The main risks through the end of the year, according to KSE Institute analysts, are further Russian strikes on energy facilities, enterprises, ports, and transport infrastructure. These could further reduce production, exports, and tax revenues, especially in winter. Funding shortfalls also threaten delays in financing certain social programs and cuts to non-priority spending. To maintain international support, Ukraine must fulfill its tax commitments to the EU and the IMF. The Verkhovna Rada supported, in its first reading, the abolition of the VAT exemption for international parcels valued up to €150 — a measure that could generate around UAH 10 billion in 2027. Other changes include improvements to VAT administration and rules on taxing transactions between related companies.
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