In August 2026, seaborne exports of Russian crude oil and oil products fell by 6.1% compared to July and by 12.4% compared to August last year, to 4.9 million barrels per day, according to the September issue of the Russian Oil Tracker from the KSE Institute. Compared to July, crude oil supplies decreased by approximately 9%, to 3.8 million barrels per day. Seaborne exports of oil products rose by 4.6% compared to July, to 1.1 million barrels per day, but remained roughly half the average 2025 level. Total exports of Russian crude oil and oil products fell by 410,000 barrels per day compared to July and by 840,000 barrels per day compared to last year, to 6.4 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2018. Higher prices only partially offset the decline in volumes. Russia’s oil export revenue rose by $0.3 billion both month-on-month and compared to August last year, to $13.9 billion.   Ukrainian strikes continue to weaken Russian oil refining. In July, oil refining volume fell to 3.7 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than 20 years, against installed capacity of approximately 6.5 million barrels per day. According to the IEA’s forecast, it may recover to only around 4 million barrels per day on average by the end of 2026 and through 2027. Sanctions restricting access to spare parts and specialized equipment are hampering the restoration of damaged capacity. Russia may also extend restrictions on gasoline and diesel fuel exports into October, which would continue to pressure revenues. Regionally, supplies through Black Sea ports saw the sharpest decline in August. Crude oil exports from these ports fell by 55.9% compared to July and by 53.1% compared to last year. Oil product exports fell by 52.1% and 79.2%, respectively.   Tankers insured by the International Group P&I carried 28% of Russian crude oil and 71% of oil products. According to KSE Institute estimates, in August, 168 loaded shadow fleet tankers departed from Russian ports or received Russian oil during ship-to-ship transfers. 92% of these vessels were older than 15 years. As of September 25, the US, the UK, the EU, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand had together added 687 unique oil tankers to their sanctions lists. On September 24, Australia imposed sanctions on 38 additional tankers. Following this, the number of vessels sanctioned by all six jurisdictions rose to 49. In August, the share of Russian oil companies under US sanctions also increased. Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, and Surgutneftegas together accounted for 25% of crude oil exports, up from 15% in July, while their share of oil product exports reached 17%. The share of UAE-based Redwood Global Supply in crude oil exports fell to 21%, and that of Russia’s Rusexport fell to 22%. However, Rusexport’s share remained above the January–June 2026 average of 15%. India and China remained the main buyers of Russian crude oil. In August, India cut imports by 24%, to approximately 2 million barrels per day, still 18% above the 2025 average level. Russian oil accounted for 43% of India’s total crude oil imports. China increased purchases by 18%, to 1.65 million barrels per day, or 23% of its total imports. Turkey increased imports of Russian crude oil to 204,000 barrels per day, or 34% of its total imports, while supplies of Russian oil products fell to 127,000 barrels per day, the lowest level on record.   In September, Russia also began shipments via a new Arctic route. Two tankers loaded approximately 1 million barrels of oil at the Sever Bay terminal after transport via the 790-kilometer Vankor–Payakha–Severnaya Bukhta pipeline. The initial volumes came mainly from the Vankor fields, already connected to the ESPO pipeline, while the new Payakha field remains at an early stage of development due to Western sanctions. Russia staged a “Potemkin” display, using a more complex and expensive export route for oil that was already being transported via the ESPO pipeline. Prices for Russian oil and oil products rose in August, following global market trends. The average Urals price at loading ports rose by approximately $9, to $66 per barrel, remaining above the EU’s revised price cap. ESPO rose by approximately $6, to $73 per barrel. Diesel fuel cost around $163 per barrel, and gasoil cost $139.   The KSE Institute revised its forecast for Russian oil revenues to account for the war in the Middle East. Under the baseline scenario, revenues may rise from $158 billion in 2025 to $193 billion in 2026, before declining to $158 billion in 2027. Under increased sanctions pressure, they could reach $166 billion in 2026 and $125 billion in 2027. Under weak enforcement of restrictions, revenues could reach $204 billion and $197 billion, respectively. Total losses to Russian oil export revenue from March 2022 to August 2026 are estimated at $209 billion. In August, they amounted to $4.4 billion, $0.5 billion less than in July.