{"id":79421,"date":"2026-10-14T11:37:27","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T11:37:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.kse.ua\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T15:41:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T15:41:02","slug":"official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">KSE Institute has published the third quarterly issue of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker, which examines Russia&#8217;s ability to import critical goods subject to export restrictions imposed by the sanctions coalition. In this third issue, the authors expanded their analysis by cross-referencing open export statistics with data on individual import transactions. This approach reveals where official trade statistics may not fully capture Russia&#8217;s import flows.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The most notable discrepancy compared to official data concerns Hong Kong. Its recorded exports of goods on the Common High Priority (CHP) list to Russia have more than halved since the start of the full-scale invasion, while estimated volumes may have roughly doubled. For goods in CHP Tiers 1, 2, and 3.A \u2013 including integrated circuits, wireless communication components, and discrete electronic components \u2013 data on individual import transactions point to volumes 3\u20134 times higher than officially recorded exports.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The expanded analysis also changes the overall picture of CHP imports to Russia. Combining official trade statistics with data on individual import transactions suggests that import volumes in 2023 may have matched or even exceeded pre-war levels, before declining in 2024. China remains the leading supplier even after accounting for potential underrepresentation in trade data \u2013 its share stands at roughly 50\u201370%, depending on the month, rather than over 75% as official statistics suggest.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">The potential gap between official and estimated volumes is assessed at approximately $5\u20136 billion for Hong Kong and $6\u20137 billion for China, compared to less than $1 billion for sanctions coalition countries. In China&#8217;s case, this discrepancy is almost entirely attributable to Tier 1 \u2013 microelectronics. This is also the only CHP category where estimated volumes have consistently exceeded pre-war levels. Meanwhile, direct CHP exports from sanctions coalition countries have declined sharply since 2022, and the analysis finds little evidence of significant underrepresentation in export data from coalition countries.   <\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Future issues of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker will expand the analysis of potentially unrecorded exports and revisit the price premium assessment presented in the second issue.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/institute.kse.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/russian_chp_tracker_eng_q3_2026.pdf?_gl=1*1d6n2f5*_gcl_au*MTMyNzczMDUzMy4xNzg5NzY0MDc4*_ga*MTUwMjU4MjEzLjE3ODk3NjQwNzg.*_ga_QPXTNGJE3B*czE3OTIwNzQ5MTEkbzYzJGcxJHQxNzkyMDc3NTMwJGo1MSRsMCRoMTI0NTM2MjM4Mg..\">Full study PDF<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>KSE Institute has published the third quarterly issue of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker, which examines Russia&#8217;s ability to import critical goods subject to export restrictions imposed by the sanctions coalition. In this third issue, the authors expanded their analysis by cross-referencing open export statistics with data on individual import transactions. This approach reveals where [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[],"department":[],"news_type":[34],"project":[],"region":[],"unit":[],"class_list":["post-79421","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry","news_type-news"],"acf":{"primary_unit":null,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"To the event","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":"","related_events":"","related_people":"","related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"Program Format","program_items":null,"reference_title":"Reference","reference_content":"","source_system":"wp","source_id":"","content_owner":"","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026 - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"KSE Institute has published the third quarterly issue of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker, which examines Russia&#8217;s ability to import critical goods subject to export restrictions imposed by the sanctions coalition. In this third issue, the authors expanded their analysis by cross-referencing open export statistics with data on individual import transactions. This approach reveals where [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-15T15:41:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\\\/\",\"name\":\"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026 - KSE\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-14T11:37:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-15T15:41:02+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"KSE\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"KSE\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/29094456\\\/Logo-3.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/29094456\\\/Logo-3.svg\",\"caption\":\"KSE\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\\\/\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026 - KSE","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026","og_description":"KSE Institute has published the third quarterly issue of the Russian CHP Imports Tracker, which examines Russia&#8217;s ability to import critical goods subject to export restrictions imposed by the sanctions coalition. In this third issue, the authors expanded their analysis by cross-referencing open export statistics with data on individual import transactions. This approach reveals where [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/","og_site_name":"KSE","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/","article_modified_time":"2026-10-15T15:41:02+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/","name":"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026 - KSE","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-10-14T11:37:27+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-15T15:41:02+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/official-trade-statistics-may-not-fully-reflect-the-true-volume-of-military-use-goods-imports-to-russia-russian-chp-imports-tracker-q3-2026\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Official trade statistics may not fully reflect the true volume of military-use goods imports to Russia \u2013 Russian CHP Imports Tracker, Q3 2026"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/","name":"KSE","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#organization","name":"KSE","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/29094456\/Logo-3.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/29094456\/Logo-3.svg","caption":"KSE"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/79421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/79421\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79421"},{"taxonomy":"department","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/department?post=79421"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=79421"},{"taxonomy":"project","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/project?post=79421"},{"taxonomy":"region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/region?post=79421"},{"taxonomy":"unit","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/unit?post=79421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}