{"id":14964,"date":"2026-04-09T13:06:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T11:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T13:06:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T11:06:20","slug":"impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Download the full material<\/a><\/p>\n

KSE Institute has published an initial assessment of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure. The analysis covers attacks on the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in late March 2026, while the latest attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in early April 2026 are not yet included in the assessment due to the limited time passed.<\/p>\n

The strikes are taking place at a time when global energy prices have soared due to the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 providing Russia with urgently needed fiscal relief after several months of mounting pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Key findings:<\/b><\/p>\n

KSE Institute estimates that Russian oil export earnings were reduced by approximately $1.76 billion<\/b> over two weeks from March 23 to April 5, 2026 vs. a hypothetical no-attack baseline \u2014 $923 million in the first week and $839 million in the second.<\/p>\n

The ports targeted by Ukrainian strikes account for approximately 59% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports<\/b>: Primorsk \u2014 22%, Ust-Luga \u2014 20%, Novorossiysk \u2014 17%.<\/p>\n

Activity at the ports:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Primorsk<\/b> has partially recovered:<\/b> oil product volumes dropped from 446 kb\/d prior to the attacks to 181 kb\/d, but have since rebounded to 381 kb\/d. The number of loaded tanker departures fell from 20\u201323 per week prior to the attacks to 11, before rising back to 17.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Ust-Luga<\/b> has effectively come to a standstill: <\/b>crude oil volumes dropped from 725 kb\/d to 101\u2013155 kb\/d, while oil product volumes fell to near zero (25 kb\/d). Loaded tanker departures dropped from 16\u201317 per week before the attacks to just 2 in the week of March 30\u2013April 5.<\/p>\n

The higher global oil prices are, the more costly it is for Russia to lose each barrel it cannot export through damaged terminals. For the strikes to risk economically backfiring, prices would need to fall significantly.<\/p>\n

A further risk for Russia is the potential for longer-term disruptions to production. Because Russia lacks significant storage capacity, a shutdown of export terminals could necessitate curtailing output at aging reservoirs,which would be slow and technically complex to restart.<\/p>\n

Ukrainian strikes have had no discernible impact on global prices \u2014 the effect of reduced Russian supply is overshadowed by the scale of the market disruption caused by the Iran war, which has removed around 15 mb\/d from global circulation.<\/p>\n

For methodological details, see the full assessment. This assessment is based on preliminary numbers for vessel movements, which are often subject to subsequent data revisions by the source. The data used for this report was accessed on April 7, 2026.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Download the full materialKSE Institute has published an initial assessment of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure. The analysis covers attacks on the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in late March 2026, while the latest attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in early April 2026 are not yet\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[244],"tags":[],"department":[],"news_type":[224],"project":[],"region":[108],"unit":[223],"class_list":["post-14964","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry","category-defence-en","news_type-research","region-russia","unit-institute-en"],"acf":{"primary_unit":223,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"66337","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"\nImpact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download the full materialKSE Institute has published an initial assessment of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure. The analysis covers attacks on the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in late March 2026, while the latest attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in early April 2026 are not yet\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\\\/\",\"name\":\"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment - KSE\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-09T11:06:20+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"KSE\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"KSE\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/29094456\\\/Logo-3.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/29094456\\\/Logo-3.svg\",\"caption\":\"KSE\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\\\/\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment - KSE","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment","og_description":"Download the full materialKSE Institute has published an initial assessment of the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure. The analysis covers attacks on the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in late March 2026, while the latest attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in early April 2026 are not yet\u2026","og_url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/","og_site_name":"KSE","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/","name":"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment - KSE","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-04-09T11:06:20+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/impact-of-ukrainian-strikes-on-russia-s-oil-infrastructure-kse-institute-assessment\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Oil Infrastructure \u2014 KSE Institute Assessment"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/","name":"KSE","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#organization","name":"KSE","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/29094456\/Logo-3.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/29094456\/Logo-3.svg","caption":"KSE"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/14964","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/14964\/revisions"}],"acf:term":[{"embeddable":true,"taxonomy":"unit","href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/unit\/223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14964"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14964"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14964"},{"taxonomy":"department","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/department?post=14964"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=14964"},{"taxonomy":"project","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/project?post=14964"},{"taxonomy":"region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/region?post=14964"},{"taxonomy":"unit","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/unit?post=14964"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}