{"id":14779,"date":"2025-11-12T12:10:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T10:10:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:42:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:42:12","slug":"russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian Oil Tracker \u2013 October 2025: Attacks on Refineries Reduced Processing and Product Exports, Driving an Increase in Crude Shipments"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/08123644\/rot_oct25.pdf\">Download the full material<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In September 2025, Russia\u2019s oil export revenues decreased by around $0.2 billion to $13.4 billion MoM, according to the October edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. Revenues from crude exports rose by $0.2 billion to $9.0 billion, but this increase was fully offset by a $0.4 billion decline in oil product revenues to $4.4 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% MoM, remaining broadly unchanged compared to the same period last year. Tankers with International Group (IG) P&amp;I insurance carried 26% of crude and 81% of oil products.<\/p>\n<p>In October 2025, Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800 kb\/d over normal level to 4.6 mb\/d due to continued drone attacks. Rosneft, Russia\u2019s largest producer, reduced processing by 22% from July levels. Several major refineries \u2014 including Novo-Ufimsky (complete shutdown), Ryazan (-80%), Volgograd (-58%), and Saratov (-34%) \u2014 significantly cut throughput. The Kirishi refinery, one of Russia\u2019s key diesel exporters, lowered output by 16% to 185 kb\/d. The absence of official confirmation of damages complicates the assessment of their scale and recovery timelines.<\/p>\n<p>Despite reduced refinery activity in Russia, the\u00a0 impact on market prices in Europe was limited as global oil supply remained intact. Oil product exports fell by 170 kb\/d \u2014 mainly diesel\/gasoil and fuel oil \u2014 to the lowest level in a decade (excluding April 2020), while crude oil exports rose by 370 kb\/d to the highest level since May 2023. Average diesel and fuel oil prices in Northwest Europe declined by $4.2\/bbl and $6.2\/bbl, respectively, compared to July levels.<\/p>\n<p>According to KSE Institute estimates, 153 tankers of the Russian shadow fleet carrying crude and oil products departed from Russian ports and engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in September; 89% of them were older than 15 years. India remained the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude with 1,602 kb\/d (42%), while Turkey was the top importer of oil products with 424 kb\/d.<\/p>\n<p>As of October 31, 2025, the EU, US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand had sanctioned 610 oil tankers involved in transporting Russian oil. The number of sanctioned vessels that loaded in Russian ports increased by nine MoM to 109, once again highlighting weak enforcement of sanctions.<\/p>\n<p>In September, all Russian crude grades traded above the EU\u2019s revised price cap, while most oil products \u2014 except naphtha \u2014 traded below the unchanged product caps. Urals FOB Primorsk and Novorossiysk averaged $55\/bbl (around $8 above the cap), while ESPO FOB Kozmino was priced at $62.8\/bbl.<\/p>\n<p>According to KSE Institute projections, under current price caps and the status quo of sanctions, Russia\u2019s oil revenues are expected to reach $158 billion in 2025 and $131 billion in 2026 (compared to $189 billion in 2024 and $185 billion in 2023). If Urals and ESPO discounts widen to $30\/bbl and $20\/bbl, revenues could drop to $149 billion and $67 billion. In a weak enforcement scenario, revenues could instead rise to $162 billion and $146 billion, respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Download the full materialIn September 2025, Russia\u2019s oil export revenues decreased by around $0.2 billion to $13.4 billion MoM, according to the October edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. Revenues from crude exports rose by $0.2 billion to $9.0 billion, but this increase was fully offset by a $0.4 billion decline\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":9689,"template":"","categories":[251],"tags":[242,254,260],"department":[],"news_type":[230],"project":[],"region":[108],"unit":[223],"class_list":["post-14779","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sanctions-en","tag-revenues-en","tag-sanctions-en","tag-shadow-fleet-en","news_type-analytical-product","region-russia","unit-institute-en"],"acf":{"primary_unit":223,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"65165","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Russian Oil Tracker \u2013 October 2025: Attacks on Refineries Reduced Processing and Product Exports, Driving an Increase in Crude Shipments - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russian Oil Tracker \u2013 October 2025: Attacks on Refineries Reduced Processing and Product Exports, Driving an Increase in Crude Shipments\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download the full materialIn September 2025, Russia\u2019s oil export revenues decreased by around $0.2 billion to $13.4 billion MoM, according to the October edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. Revenues from crude exports rose by $0.2 billion to $9.0 billion, but this increase was fully offset by a $0.4 billion decline\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-08T13:42:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/08123643\/img_3746.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2048\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1026\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/russian-oil-tracker-october-2025-attacks-on-refineries-reduced-processing-and-product-exports-driving-an-increase-in-crude-shipments\\\/\",\"name\":\"Russian Oil Tracker \u2013 October 2025: Attacks on Refineries Reduced Processing and Product Exports, Driving an Increase in Crude Shipments - 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