{"id":14657,"date":"2025-07-03T13:42:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T11:42:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-oil-and-gas-budget-revenues-collapse-internal-borrowing-soars-to-finance-deficit\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:41:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:41:36","slug":"russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-oil-and-gas-budget-revenues-collapse-internal-borrowing-soars-to-finance-deficit","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-oil-and-gas-budget-revenues-collapse-internal-borrowing-soars-to-finance-deficit\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2014 Oil and Gas Budget Revenues Collapse; Internal Borrowing Soars to Finance Deficit"},"content":{"rendered":"

Download full material<\/a><\/p>\n

KSE Institute has published the June edition of its Russia ChartBook: \u201cOil and Gas Budget Revenues Collapse; Internal Borrowing Soars to Finance Deficit.\u201d Russia\u2019s mounting fiscal challenges present an opportunity for Ukraine\u2019s allies to intensify sanctions and financial pressure, further restricting the Kremlin\u2019s ability to fund its war.<\/p>\n

In May 2025, persistently low oil prices pushed Russia\u2019s oil export earnings down to $12.6 billion and O&G budget revenues to 513 billion rubles \u2014 both the lowest levels since early 2023. The average export price for Russian crude dropped to $51 per barrel, around $5 below the revised budget assumption. A temporary price spike following the recent escalation between Israel and Iran provided short-lived relief, but prices are expected to return to lower levels.<\/p>\n

The budget revision highlights growing fiscal stress. Russia revised its 2025 budget ahead of schedule, projecting that oil and gas revenues will fall by 24% and the overall deficit will more than triple \u2014 from 1.2 trillion to 3.8 trillion rubles. Over the first five months of the year, the deficit reached 3.4 trillion rubles (89% of the revised annual target), driven by a 14% drop in oil and gas revenues, 12% growth in non-oil revenues, and a 21% increase in expenditures. Under such conditions, meeting full-year budget targets will be difficult.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s macroeconomic buffers remain under pressure. The liquid portion of the NWF has declined by 71% since early 2022, now standing at 2.8 trillion rubles \u2014 well below the projected 2025 deficit. As a result, the Ministry of Finance is increasingly relying on domestic debt, issuing 1.7 trillion rubles in OFZ bonds from January to May, a 52% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Domestic banks are now the sole buyers of this debt.<\/p>\n

Inflation remained high in May at 9.9% y-o-y, only slightly down from April. Despite a 20% policy rate, the Central Bank has failed to contain price growth \u2014 pressured by labor shortages, war-driven fiscal stimulus, and rising private credit. Mounting economic costs forced the CBR to cut rates for the first time since 2022.<\/p>\n

The pace of economic growth is slowing. Real GDP grew by only 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 4.5% in Q4 2024. With serious constraints in labor and capital, and borrowing costs on the rise, GDP growth is expected to slow significantly this year and beyond. This is increasing pressure on the budget, and companies are already cutting back on substantial wage increases.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Download full materialKSE Institute has published the June edition of its Russia ChartBook: \u201cOil and Gas Budget Revenues Collapse; Internal Borrowing Soars to Finance Deficit.\u201d Russia\u2019s mounting fiscal challenges present an opportunity for Ukraine\u2019s allies to intensify sanctions and financial pressure, further restricting the Kremlin\u2019s ability to fund its war. In May 2025, persistently low\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[],"department":[],"news_type":[15],"project":[],"region":[],"unit":[38],"class_list":["post-14657","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry","news_type-news","unit-kse"],"acf":{"primary_unit":null,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"64227","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"\nRussia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2014 Oil and Gas Budget Revenues Collapse; Internal Borrowing Soars to Finance Deficit - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-oil-and-gas-budget-revenues-collapse-internal-borrowing-soars-to-finance-deficit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2014 Oil and Gas Budget Revenues Collapse; Internal Borrowing Soars to Finance Deficit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download full materialKSE Institute has published the June edition of its Russia ChartBook: \u201cOil and Gas Budget Revenues Collapse; Internal Borrowing Soars to Finance Deficit.\u201d Russia\u2019s mounting fiscal challenges present an opportunity for Ukraine\u2019s allies to intensify sanctions and financial pressure, further restricting the Kremlin\u2019s ability to fund its war. 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