{"id":14631,"date":"2025-06-10T12:20:53","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T10:20:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-lower-oil-prices-weigh-on-exports-revenues-early-budget-revision-indicates-challenges\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:41:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:41:27","slug":"russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-lower-oil-prices-weigh-on-exports-revenues-early-budget-revision-indicates-challenges","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-lower-oil-prices-weigh-on-exports-revenues-early-budget-revision-indicates-challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2014 Lower Oil Prices Weigh on Exports, Revenues; Early Budget Revision Indicates Challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/08123339\/chartbook_may2025.pdf\">Download full material<\/a><\/p>\n<p>KSE Institute has published the May edition of its Russia Chartbook: \u201cLower Oil Prices Weigh on Exports, Revenues; Early Budget Revision Indicates Challenges.\u201d Ukraine\u2019s allies should leverage Russia\u2019s growing financial difficulties and shrinking macroeconomic buffers to increase sanctions and financial pressure, further constraining the Kremlin\u2019s ability to fund its war.<\/p>\n<p>In April 2025, Russia\u2019s oil export earnings fell to $13.2 billion \u2014 the second-lowest level since energy sanctions were introduced. The average price of a barrel of Russian oil remained below $60 for the second month in a row, which is associated with global market trends and decisions made by OPEC+ countries. If this situation continues, Russia&#8217;s external accounts could come under significant pressure. In January\u2013April 2025, oil and gas budget revenues decreased by 10% compared to the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>In April, Russia was forced to conduct a revision of its federal budget \u2014 earlier than at any point in recent history. The updated forecast lowered expected oil and gas revenues by 24% and raised planned expenditures by 3%, whereas the expected full-year budget deficit was tripled \u2014 from 1.2 trillion to 3.8 trillion rubles. Over the first four months of the year, the deficit already reached 3.2 trillion rubles, or 85% of the revised annual plan.<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s macroeconomic buffers remain under pressure. As of April 2025, the liquid part of the NWF stood at 3.3 trillion rubles \u2014 down 66% from pre-invasion levels and now smaller than the revised annual deficit. To cover the budget gap Russian MinFin increasingly relies on domestic borrowing, however, interest in federal bonds remains weak among Russian banks.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation remained high in April \u2014 10.2% year-on-year, only slightly below the March figure (10.3%). Core inflation and inflation expectations also remain elevated. Despite the key interest rate holding at 21%, inflationary pressures persist, driven by labor shortages, accommodative fiscal policy, and rapid credit growth.<\/p>\n<p>Economic growth is slowing. In Q1 2025, real GDP rose by just 1.4% (compared to 4.5% in Q4 2024). Growth is expected to slow further to 1\u20132% over the course of the year due to tight labor markets, higher borrowing costs, and weak investment. Against this backdrop, companies are increasingly unable to afford significant wage increases \u2014 a trend already emerging in recent months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Download full materialKSE Institute has published the May edition of its Russia Chartbook: \u201cLower Oil Prices Weigh on Exports, Revenues; Early Budget Revision Indicates Challenges.\u201d Ukraine\u2019s allies should leverage Russia\u2019s growing financial difficulties and shrinking macroeconomic buffers to increase sanctions and financial pressure, further constraining the Kremlin\u2019s ability to fund its war. In April 2025,\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":9435,"template":"","categories":[251],"tags":[253,242,254,252],"department":[],"news_type":[230],"project":[],"region":[108],"unit":[223],"class_list":["post-14631","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sanctions-en","tag-deterrence-en","tag-revenues-en","tag-sanctions-en","tag-supply-chains-en","news_type-analytical-product","region-russia","unit-institute-en"],"acf":{"primary_unit":223,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"63930","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2014 Lower Oil Prices Weigh on Exports, Revenues; Early Budget Revision Indicates Challenges - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-lower-oil-prices-weigh-on-exports-revenues-early-budget-revision-indicates-challenges\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2014 Lower Oil Prices Weigh on Exports, Revenues; Early Budget Revision Indicates Challenges\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download full materialKSE Institute has published the May edition of its Russia Chartbook: \u201cLower Oil Prices Weigh on Exports, Revenues; Early Budget Revision Indicates Challenges.\u201d Ukraine\u2019s allies should leverage Russia\u2019s growing financial difficulties and shrinking macroeconomic buffers to increase sanctions and financial pressure, further constraining the Kremlin\u2019s ability to fund its war. 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