{"id":14576,"date":"2025-04-17T15:05:47","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T13:05:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-march-2025-urals-prices-approach-the-cap-but-russia-maintains-export-volumes-despite-expanding-sanctions\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:41:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:41:11","slug":"russian-oil-tracker-march-2025-urals-prices-approach-the-cap-but-russia-maintains-export-volumes-despite-expanding-sanctions","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-march-2025-urals-prices-approach-the-cap-but-russia-maintains-export-volumes-despite-expanding-sanctions\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian Oil Tracker March 2025: Urals Prices Approach the Cap, but Russia Maintains Export Volumes Despite Expanding Sanctions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dowmload full material<\/a><\/p>\n

In February 2025, Russian oil export revenues fell by $2.4 billion to $13.3 billion, which is $2.6 billion lower than in February 2024, according to KSE Institute\u2019s March \u201cRussian Oil Tracker.\u201d The main reasons were deeper discounts on Urals crude and a reduction in oil product exports. Crude oil revenue dropped by $1.4 billion to $8.3 billion, while oil product revenue declined by $1.1 billion to $5.0 billion.<\/p>\n

Russian seaborne crude exports barely changed, whereas oil product shipments contracted by 3.8%. Only 22% of crude and 70% of oil products were shipped by tankers with IG P&I insurance coverage. In February, 152 shadow fleet tankers carrying either crude or oil products departed Russian ports or conducted STS transfers; 91% of these vessels were over 15 years old, posing heightened environmental risks due to accident potential and possible oil spills.<\/p>\n

As of 20 March 2025, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union sanctioned 311 oil tankers for violating restrictions on transporting Russian oil. Of these, 72 continue operating post-designation. Under intensifying sanctions pressure, the share of Russian seaborne crude carried by the shadow fleet declined to 78% (8 percentage points lower than in January) to 2.5 mb\/d, while shadow oil product exports dropped by 7% to 701 kb\/d.<\/p>\n

India remains Russia\u2019s largest importer of seaborne crude, increasing purchases to 1,808 kb\/d (57% of total seaborne exports). China reduced imports by 4% to 1,121 kb\/d, whereas Turkey \u2014 although still the main buyer of Russian oil products at 451 kb\/d \u2014 cut its crude imports by 48% after its largest refiner Tupras halted Urals purchases following new U.S. sanctions.<\/p>\n

In February, the price of Urals FOB Primorsk and Novorossiysk dropped by around $6 per barrel, pulling the price near the established cap. Meanwhile, ESPO FOB Kozmino remained about $6.6 per barrel above that limit. Premium products traded below the price ceiling, while discounted products continued exceeding it.<\/p>\n

KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues to reach $149 billion in 2025 and $132 billion in 2026 under the current price caps and sanctions (with stronger enforcement), compared to $189 billion in 2024 and $185 billion in 2023. If discounts on Urals and ESPO widen to $40 and $30 per barrel respectively, revenues could shrink to $92 billion and $59 billion. Under weak sanctions enforcement, however, Russia\u2019s oil revenues could still climb to $169 billion in 2025 and $160 billion in 2026, enabling it to continue wagging its war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dowmload full materialIn February 2025, Russian oil export revenues fell by $2.4 billion to $13.3 billion, which is $2.6 billion lower than in February 2024, according to KSE Institute\u2019s March \u201cRussian Oil Tracker.\u201d The main reasons were deeper discounts on Urals crude and a reduction in oil product exports. Crude oil revenue dropped by $1.4\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":9321,"template":"","categories":[251],"tags":[242,254],"department":[],"news_type":[230],"project":[],"region":[108],"unit":[223],"class_list":["post-14576","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sanctions-en","tag-revenues-en","tag-sanctions-en","news_type-analytical-product","region-russia","unit-institute-en"],"acf":{"primary_unit":223,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"63556","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"\nRussian Oil Tracker March 2025: Urals Prices Approach the Cap, but Russia Maintains Export Volumes Despite Expanding Sanctions - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russian-oil-tracker-march-2025-urals-prices-approach-the-cap-but-russia-maintains-export-volumes-despite-expanding-sanctions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russian Oil Tracker March 2025: Urals Prices Approach the Cap, but Russia Maintains Export Volumes Despite Expanding Sanctions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dowmload full materialIn February 2025, Russian oil export revenues fell by $2.4 billion to $13.3 billion, which is $2.6 billion lower than in February 2024, according to KSE Institute\u2019s March \u201cRussian Oil Tracker.\u201d The main reasons were deeper discounts on Urals crude and a reduction in oil product exports. 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