{"id":14566,"date":"2025-04-11T12:26:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T10:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-macroeconomic-fundamentals-remain-unchanged-budget-deficit-signals-growing-challenges\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:41:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:41:08","slug":"russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-macroeconomic-fundamentals-remain-unchanged-budget-deficit-signals-growing-challenges","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-macroeconomic-fundamentals-remain-unchanged-budget-deficit-signals-growing-challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2013 Macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged; budget deficit signals growing challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"

Download full material<\/a><\/p>\n

KSE Institute has released its new March Russia Chartbook: \u201cMacroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged; budget deficit signals growing challenges.\u201d<\/i> Ukraine\u2019s allies should leverage Russia\u2019s increasing budgetary pressures and limited macroeconomic buffers to intensify economic and strategic pressure, undermining the Kremlin\u2019s ability to sustain the war.<\/p>\n

The external environment remains relatively supportive for Russia, although lower global oil prices have driven export revenues to their lowest level in two years \u2013 just $13.3 billion in February. While the shadow fleet continues to enable most of Russia\u2019s seaborne crude exports, recent sanctions have begun to limit its effectiveness, with the share of such exports transported without G7+ services falling to 78%.<\/p>\n

Russia recorded a 2.7 trillion-ruble federal budget deficit in January\u2013February 2025 \u2013 139% higher than the same period last year and more than twice the amount planned for the full year. The shortfall was driven by a 4% year-over-year drop in oil and gas revenues, while total expenditures increased by 31%. The deficit was fully financed through domestic debt issuance, with no withdrawals from the National Welfare Fund (NWF), which remains untouched in 2025. However, liquid NWF assets have declined by 65% since the full-scale invasion and now consist solely of yuan-denominated assets and gold.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s macroeconomic buffers remain under pressure. More than $340 billion in international reserves are immobilized due to sanctions, severely limiting the Central Bank\u2019s room for maneuver. Despite having raised the key interest rate by a cumulative 1,350 basis points since mid-2023, inflation continued to rise in February, reaching 10.1% year-over-year \u2013 the highest in two years. War-related fiscal stimulus, a tight labor market, and rapid credit expansion continue to fuel domestic demand and inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

GDP growth is expected to slow significantly in 2025. According to KSE Institute, structural labor shortages, lack of foreign investment, and tighter monetary conditions will constrain Russia\u2019s economic potential. Against this backdrop, Ukraine\u2019s partners should strengthen financial pressure and sanctions to further undermine Russia\u2019s ability to fund its war and maintain macroeconomic stability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Download full materialKSE Institute has released its new March Russia Chartbook: \u201cMacroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged; budget deficit signals growing challenges.\u201d Ukraine\u2019s allies should leverage Russia\u2019s increasing budgetary pressures and limited macroeconomic buffers to intensify economic and strategic pressure, undermining the Kremlin\u2019s ability to sustain the war. The external environment remains relatively supportive for Russia, although\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":9311,"template":"","categories":[251],"tags":[253,242,254,252],"department":[],"news_type":[230],"project":[],"region":[108],"unit":[223],"class_list":["post-14566","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sanctions-en","tag-deterrence-en","tag-revenues-en","tag-sanctions-en","tag-supply-chains-en","news_type-analytical-product","region-russia","unit-institute-en"],"acf":{"primary_unit":223,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"63422","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"\nRussia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2013 Macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged; budget deficit signals growing challenges - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/russia-chartbook-by-kse-institute-macroeconomic-fundamentals-remain-unchanged-budget-deficit-signals-growing-challenges\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute \u2013 Macroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged; budget deficit signals growing challenges\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download full materialKSE Institute has released its new March Russia Chartbook: \u201cMacroeconomic fundamentals remain unchanged; budget deficit signals growing challenges.\u201d Ukraine\u2019s allies should leverage Russia\u2019s increasing budgetary pressures and limited macroeconomic buffers to intensify economic and strategic pressure, undermining the Kremlin\u2019s ability to sustain the war. 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