{"id":14470,"date":"2025-01-28T16:49:16","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T14:49:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/kse-institute-s-russia-chartbook-the-russian-economy-at-the-start-of-2025-underlying-vulnerabilities-depleted-macro-buffers-but-no-signs-of-an-immediate-crisis\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T10:37:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T10:37:57","slug":"kse-institute-s-russia-chartbook-the-russian-economy-at-the-start-of-2025-underlying-vulnerabilities-depleted-macro-buffers-but-no-signs-of-an-immediate-crisis","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-s-russia-chartbook-the-russian-economy-at-the-start-of-2025-underlying-vulnerabilities-depleted-macro-buffers-but-no-signs-of-an-immediate-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"KSE Institute&#8217;s Russia Chartbook &#8211; The Russian Economy At The Start Of 2025: Underlying Vulnerabilities, Depleted Macro Buffers, But No Signs Of An Immediate Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/15103757\/chartbook_january2025.pdf\" target=\" _blank\">Download full material<\/a><\/p>\n<p>KSE Institute has released its new January Russia Chartbook &#8220;The Russian Economy At The Start Of 2025: Underlying Vulnerabilities, Depleted Macro Buffers, But No Signs Of An Immediate Crisis.&#8221; Ukraine\u2019s allies must maintain a coordinated and consistent approach to uncover Russia\u2019s economic vulnerabilities, further complicating its economic management.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s external environment remained supportive in 2024, with a current account surplus of $53.9 billion, slightly exceeding $50.1 billion in 2023. However, the surplus weakened significantly in the second half of the year, falling to $12.6 billion from $41.3 billion in the first half. Goods imports rose by $19 billion in the second half, while service and income transfer deficits increased by $5 billion each. Oil and gas exports grew by 2%, adding $6 billion due to higher prices, but exports of other goods declined by 7%, resulting in a $13 billion loss.<\/p>\n<p>The federal budget deficit in 2024 reached 3.5 trillion rubles, equivalent to 1.7% of GDP or about $39 billion. This aligns with the deficits of the previous two years in ruble terms. Revenues from oil, gas, and non-oil sectors increased by 26% compared to 2023, helping to offset a 24% rise in spending. Despite this, the full-year deficit significantly exceeded the planned 1.6 trillion rubles. In December, the 3.1 trillion ruble deficit was financed through a 1.3 trillion ruble transfer from the National Welfare Fund and 2 trillion rubles in domestic debt issuance, supported by a Central Bank repo operation.<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s macroeconomic buffers remain under pressure. The liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund have declined to 3.8 trillion rubles, a 60% drop since February 2022. With hard currency reserves depleted by the end of 2023, Russia sold yuan-denominated assets and gold in December to cover the budget deficit. At current prices and exchange rates, the fund\u2019s liquid assets amount to $37.5 billion, which are close to depletion for budgetary needs. Meanwhile, an estimated $340 billion of Central Bank reserves remain frozen due to sanctions, limiting monetary policy options, with the location of approximately 85% of these assets identified.<\/p>\n<p>While the Russian economy faces serious vulnerabilities, there is no immediate crisis. GDP growth in 2024 is estimated at around 3.5%, similar to 2023. This growth was supported by increased government spending on the war, a surge in private sector bank loans, and a tight labor market. However, these factors, along with ongoing ruble depreciation, pushed inflation to 9.5% year-over-year in December. Despite the Central Bank\u2019s significant interest rate hikes of 1,350 basis points since mid-2023, inflation remains high due to compromised monetary policy transmission.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Download full materialKSE Institute has released its new January Russia Chartbook &#8220;The Russian Economy At The Start Of 2025: Underlying Vulnerabilities, Depleted Macro Buffers, But No Signs Of An Immediate Crisis.&#8221; Ukraine\u2019s allies must maintain a coordinated and consistent approach to uncover Russia\u2019s economic vulnerabilities, further complicating its economic management. Russia\u2019s external environment remained supportive\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":9047,"template":"","categories":[251],"tags":[253,242,254,252],"department":[],"news_type":[230],"project":[],"region":[108],"unit":[223],"class_list":["post-14470","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sanctions-en","tag-deterrence-en","tag-revenues-en","tag-sanctions-en","tag-supply-chains-en","news_type-analytical-product","region-russia","unit-institute-en"],"acf":{"primary_unit":223,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"62786","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>KSE Institute&#039;s Russia Chartbook - The Russian Economy At The Start Of 2025: Underlying Vulnerabilities, Depleted Macro Buffers, But No Signs Of An Immediate Crisis - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-s-russia-chartbook-the-russian-economy-at-the-start-of-2025-underlying-vulnerabilities-depleted-macro-buffers-but-no-signs-of-an-immediate-crisis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"KSE Institute&#039;s Russia Chartbook - The Russian Economy At The Start Of 2025: Underlying Vulnerabilities, Depleted Macro Buffers, But No Signs Of An Immediate Crisis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download full materialKSE Institute has released its new January Russia Chartbook &quot;The Russian Economy At The Start Of 2025: Underlying Vulnerabilities, Depleted Macro Buffers, But No Signs Of An Immediate Crisis.&quot; Ukraine\u2019s allies must maintain a coordinated and consistent approach to uncover Russia\u2019s economic vulnerabilities, further complicating its economic management. 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