{"id":13523,"date":"2023-04-12T13:45:41","date_gmt":"2023-04-12T11:45:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.kse.ua\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:35:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T13:35:48","slug":"kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/","title":{"rendered":"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"

Download full version<\/a><\/p>\n

Executive Summary<\/b><\/p>\n

1. Important measures targeting Russian energy exports are beginning to bite. <\/b>With the EU\u2019s embargo on crude oil in place since December 5, 2022, and on oil products since February 5, 2023, Russian exports are coming under increasing pressure. In addition, prices have moderated\u2014supported by the G7 price cap\u2014and Europe has moved away from Russian gas.\u00a0<\/p>\n

2. Expanded sanctions could exacerbate these pressure significantly.<\/b> We estimate that new restrictions\u2014including lower price caps on crude oil ($50\/barrel) and oil products (in line with the crude cap) as well as bans on Russian LNG and pipeline gas not sent via Ukraine\u2014would reduce oil and gas export earnings by additional $49 billion in 2023 and $69 billion in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

3. The impact from a less supportive external environment on government finance deepens. <\/b>Russia\u2019s fiscal deficit reached 2.4 trillion rubles in 2023Q1 alone\u2014or 82% of the full-year deficit planned in the budget. Revenues are under pressure, in particular oil and gas receipts, while the war drives up expenditures. A supplementary budget is inevitable.\u00a0<\/p>\n

4. Higher deficits will put significant additional pressure on financing. <\/b>At the pace of 2022Q4, Russia will use up the NWF\u2019s liquid assets by the end of this year. With room for fiscal adjustment severely limited as war expenditures and social spending are unlikely to be touched, MinFin will need to heavily rely on domestic borrowing\u2014the same way it did in late 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n

5. Domestic borrowing to pick up sharply in coming weeks. <\/b>New OFZ issuance has fallen from the record level of 2.8 trillion rubles in 2022Q4, but we expect numbers to increase again as persistently high deficits require fresh funding. Importantly, and despite smaller issuance, auctions already show some stress\u2014with bids unsatisfactory at times and yields creeping up.<\/p>\n

6. Russia\u2019s banking system will have to bear most of the government funding burden.<\/b> Foreign investors, which used to play a big role in the OFZ market, have essentially disappeared. Thus, domestic banks will need to buy up new OFZ issuance. This is an area where stricter sanctions could exacerbate already emerging challenges and put pressure on the Russian state.\u00a0<\/p>\n

7. Sanctions on Russia\u2019s central bank have severely limited access to reserves.<\/b> As a less supportive weighs on the ruble\u2014 Russia\u2019s currency has depreciated by one-third since the fall\u2014and inflationary pressure rise again, limited resources will create a dilemma and force painful decisions, including a robust monetary policy response by the CBR..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Download full versionExecutive Summary 1. Important measures targeting Russian energy exports are beginning to bite. With the EU\u2019s embargo on crude oil in place since December 5, 2022, and on oil products since February 5, 2023, Russian exports are coming under increasing pressure. In addition, prices have moderated\u2014supported by the G7 price cap\u2014and Europe has\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","categories":[],"tags":[],"department":[],"news_type":[15],"project":[],"region":[],"unit":[38],"class_list":["post-13523","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry","news_type-news","unit-kse"],"acf":{"primary_unit":null,"news_intro":"","header_cta_mode":"event","header_event_cta_text":"\u0414\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0457","header_event_cta_url":"","header_research_cta_text":"\u0427\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0432\u0441\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f","header_research_pdf":null,"author_person":"","author_name":"","related_news":null,"related_events":[],"related_people":[],"related_links":null,"external_link":"","external_link_label":"","is_featured":false,"is_featured_archive":false,"quote_text":"","quote_author":"","quote_author_role":"","program_title":"\u0424\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0442 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u0440\u0430\u043c\u0438","program_items":null,"reference_title":"\u0414\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0430","reference_content":"","source_system":"migration","source_id":"53639","content_owner":"kse","last_reviewed":null,"visibility":"public","platform_id":"","platform_version":"","platform_managed":false},"yoast_head":"\nKSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure - KSE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Download full versionExecutive Summary 1. Important measures targeting Russian energy exports are beginning to bite. With the EU\u2019s embargo on crude oil in place since December 5, 2022, and on oil products since February 5, 2023, Russian exports are coming under increasing pressure. In addition, prices have moderated\u2014supported by the G7 price cap\u2014and Europe has\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KSE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-08T13:35:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure - KSE\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-12T11:45:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-08T13:35:48+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/news\\\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"KSE\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"KSE\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/29094456\\\/Logo-3.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/29094456\\\/Logo-3.svg\",\"caption\":\"KSE\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/kse.ua\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\\\/\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure - KSE","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure","og_description":"Download full versionExecutive Summary 1. Important measures targeting Russian energy exports are beginning to bite. With the EU\u2019s embargo on crude oil in place since December 5, 2022, and on oil products since February 5, 2023, Russian exports are coming under increasing pressure. In addition, prices have moderated\u2014supported by the G7 price cap\u2014and Europe has\u2026","og_url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/","og_site_name":"KSE","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/","article_modified_time":"2026-09-08T13:35:48+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/","name":"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure - KSE","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-04-12T11:45:41+00:00","dateModified":"2026-09-08T13:35:48+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/news\/kse-institute-russia-chartbook-bop-and-budget-under-pressure-2\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"KSE Institute Russia Chartbook: BoP and Budget Under Pressure"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/","name":"KSE","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#organization","name":"KSE","url":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/29094456\/Logo-3.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/kse-ua-prod-media.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/29094456\/Logo-3.svg","caption":"KSE"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KyivSchoolOfEconomics\/"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/13523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/13523\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13525,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/13523\/revisions\/13525"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13523"},{"taxonomy":"department","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/department?post=13523"},{"taxonomy":"news_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news_type?post=13523"},{"taxonomy":"project","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/project?post=13523"},{"taxonomy":"region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/region?post=13523"},{"taxonomy":"unit","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kse.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/unit?post=13523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}